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#OilPrice – Brent at $111, WTI near $100: Fear of the Strait of Hormuz reignites price surge
On the morning of May 1st, the oil market continued its April rollercoaster. US crude oil (WTI) futures rose 3.5% to $99.71, briefly surpassing $100 during the session. Brent, meanwhile, rose 2.7% to $111.19. A week ago, Brent tested a four-year high of $126.41 before retreating to $116.
The single word driving the price up is: Hormuz.
Why is it rising again?
The US-Iran impasse: The ceasefire has been extended indefinitely, but talks have stalled. The Trump administration maintains its blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran has seized two tankers in the strait. The market is pricing in a scenario where 10% of the daily 21 million barrels of oil flow is cut off. UAE's withdrawal from OPEC: The United Arab Emirates announced its formal withdrawal from OPEC as of May 1st. A structural shock for the 60-year-old cartel. The UAE's statement that it will not adhere to the production ceiling has called into question supply discipline.
Stock psychology: Goldman Sachs calculates that if there is a six-week closure in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent could average $110 and peak at $135. The bank also revised its 2026 average from $77 to $85. ANZ forecasts $88 for the end of the year.
These expectations were reflected even at the pump in the UAE. The country increased the prices of Super 98, Special 95, and E-Plus 91 from May 1st. The reason: "global oil prices and distribution costs."
Why doesn't the volatility end?
April was a summary of this. On April 8th, with the news of a ceasefire, WTI fell to $80. Then negotiations stalled, and the price jumped 25% in three weeks. Traders are now betting on headline risk instead of fundamental supply and demand.
Reuters surveys are still predicting a "surplus supply" scenario of $61-62 for 2026. But this is only valid if the Strait of Hormuz remains open. If it remains closed, the market faces a daily deficit of 0.5 to 4.2 million barrels.
What to watch?
Hormuz traffic: Satellite data shows tanker transits have fallen to 90% of normal levels. A full closure would push the price above $120.
US strategic reserve: The White House is discussing "strategic" steps for oil, similar to the 200,000 BTC it has banned from sale. Sales from the reserve would create pressure.
UAE production: The possibility of the UAE, which is outside OPEC, increasing its daily production to 4 million barrels could stabilize the price in the short term.
The #OilPrice hashtag today is not just a number, but shows the geopolitical cost of energy. Brent is at $111, WTI is on the verge of $100. A tweet, a tanker, an OPEC decision can move the price by $10. May signals that the word "stability" will remain absent from the oil lexicon for some time to come.
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United States President Donald Trump brought together the country's leading oil and gas executives at the White House on Tuesday to address the global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war. This critical summit took place at a time when gasoline prices have climbed to their highest level in nearly four years, averaging $4.18 nationwide.
Who Was at the Table?
The meeting was attended by Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, one of the most powerful figures in the energy sector, as well as high-ranking administration officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Special Representative Steve Witkoff, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner were among the key figures present.
Behind the Scenes: Extended Blockade and Political Pressure
According to Axios, while White House officials stated the meeting was a routine exchange of information, its content points to a much deeper strategic plan. There were four main topics on the table: domestic production, progress in Venezuela, oil futures, natural gas, and maritime transport.
However, the most critical point of the meeting is hidden in a Reuters report citing White House officials. The official confirmed they discussed "steps that could be taken to calm global oil markets if the current blockade needs to be maintained for months." This indicates that President Trump remains committed to his strategy of stifling the Iranian economy by extending the military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, but is also working on alternative scenarios to protect American consumers.
$4.23 and the Political Earthquake
The real factor that increased the urgency of the meeting was the bill reflected at the pump. The average price of gasoline in the US rose to $4.23 per gallon, reaching its highest level since the start of the war on February 28. This represents a 44% increase compared to pre-war levels.
The economic hardship has directly impacted the political arena. With Trump's approval rating plummeting to a new low of 34 percent, Republicans are seriously concerned about the impact of rising living costs on voters ahead of the November midterm elections. A White House official's statement that "President Trump frequently meets with energy executives to assess market conditions" demonstrates the administration's heightened awareness of the political cost of the issue.
The Anatomy of the Global Crisis
According to International Energy Agency Administrator Fatih Birol, speaking to the Associated Press, the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz is "the biggest energy crisis we have ever faced." Disruptions to this critical waterway, through which approximately a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade passes, are driving oil prices to multi-year highs while simultaneously increasing demand for US crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
The Trump administration is trying to turn the crisis into an opportunity. The President, while using American energy dominance as a geopolitical tool, also enacted the Defense Production Act to increase domestic production and extended the Jones Act waiver for 90 days, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport goods between US ports.
However, experts warn that if meaningful diplomatic progress isn't made by the end of April, Europe has only six weeks' worth of jet fuel left, and Brent oil could climb to $150 a barrel. This picture reveals that the meeting at the White House was far more than a routine exchange of information.
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