With the blockade entering its third month, both Iran and the U.S. are ramping up their efforts.

Key points from the original text: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has warned that if the U.S. military strikes again, it will launch a “long and painful” attack on regional bases and warships; today, Trump is set to receive a new round of military briefing sessions, and Axios reports that some of the proposals even involve deploying ground forces to take over parts of the strait; Mujtaba has said they will continue to maintain “absolute control,” warning that foreign forces “can only perish at the bottom of the sea”; the U.S. is pushing a “maritime freedom architecture” alliance, but France and the UK only say they will join after a ceasefire; the UN Secretary-General warns that if the strait remains obstructed for the long term, global economic growth will noticeably slow, potentially triggering severe inflation and a food crisis.

Both sides are using the harshest words to test each other’s bottom line, but neither has truly pulled the trigger. This “clash without breaking” stalemate is, at its core, a war of attrition—whoever can’t hold out first.

The impact of this scenario on the crypto market is already very clear: as long as the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen for a day, oil prices won’t come down for a day; inflation won’t be contained for a day; rate cuts won’t be delivered for a day. BTC is repeatedly probing its base around 76,000—not waiting for some particular piece of good news, but waiting for a signal that this macro straitjacket is loosening.

But in the long run, this kind of stalemate won’t last forever. Either the U.S. military really acts—which would be a sharp shock in the short term, but afterward often leads to a more certain direction—or both sides return to the negotiating table at some critical point—that would be the concentrated release of risk appetite that has been suppressed for two months.

No matter which way it goes, the only solution that remains unchanged is: there’s no need to panic over each side’s tough words, and no need to be anxious about every time negotiations break down. Let time stand on your side.

$BTC $ETH $DOGE #美伊走向长期封锁：外交窗口关闭