🧐 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) & Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Dear investors, the signs of weakness I previously pointed out in the precious metals market have led to the expected correction, pushing the spot gold price down to the $4,500 level. While the market has found strong support at this critical threshold and is showing signs of recovery, it is now testing the $4,643 level, which was previously support and is now acting as resistance.

Current Technical Outlook

Spot gold, trading around $4,550 in the Asian session today, remains near its monthly lows. Rising energy prices fueling inflation expectations and the Fed's tight stance continue to put pressure on non-metallic yields. Signs of recovery are present on short-term charts.

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is moving within a consolidation range above $4,515. A corrective bounce towards $4,767 is possible if the uptrend continues. On the downside, the risk of a drop below $4,500 remains.

On the hourly chart, the price is breaking above the $4,560 level and moving towards $4,650. The bullish signal from the Stochastic oscillator supports short-term momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is a critical resistance level. A close above this level could trigger an upward move targeting $4,786.

Technically, the pivot point is calculated at $4,554, while the maximum support-resistance range is between $4,399 and $4,698.

Key Levels (Spot Gold)

🕵️Level Price (USD)
🔹Pivot Point 4,554.51
🔹Critical Support (S1) 4,498
🔹Secondary Support (S2) 4,455
🔹Critical Resistance (R1) 4,600
🔹Main Resistance (R2) 4,654
🔹Maximum Resistance (R3) 4,698

🧐Institutional Gold Price Predictions

Institutional 2026 Year-End Target 🔍
🔹Goldman Sachs $5,400/ounce
🔹Standard Chartered $5,200 – $5,500/ounce
🔹UBS $5,900/ounce
🔹Reuters Survey (Median) $4.916/ounce
🔹World Bank (Average) $4.700/ounce

Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Situation

Silver is exhibiting a similar trend to gold. After testing a three-week low of $70.85, it has recovered and risen above $72.00. $74.64 is the first critical resistance, while $72.04 is the main support.

The World Bank estimates that the average price of silver will be around $70 in 2026. While silver futures on COMEX are slightly positive, April's cost pressures and expectations of tight monetary policy are the main factors limiting upward movement.

Macroeconomic Catalysts and Strategy

Although the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates stable at 3.50-3.75% at yesterday's meeting, the decision, taken with the highest opposition since 1992 (8-4), indicates increasing hawkish pressure within the board. The ongoing war with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are fueling inflation by keeping oil prices high. However, according to World Gold Council data, inflows into global gold ETFs have turned positive in the last three weeks, reaching total holdings of 99.3 million ounces.

Conclusion and Expectations

Two scenarios stand out in the current outlook. In the optimistic scenario, if gold surpasses the $4,643 level, which it briefly tested and eased slightly during the day, with significant volume, an upward wave towards $4,654, $4,695, and ultimately $4,767 could begin. In a pessimistic scenario, if there is a sustained drop below $4,600, the critical support level of $4,500 could be retested. A loss here would deepen the sell-off to the $4,455 and $4,399 levels.

Gold is currently at a "decision point." The fate of the $4,643 resistance will play a critical role in determining the direction. For silver, holding above $72 could turn the short-term outlook positive, but the risk of a drop below $70 remains.

It's worth remembering that major institutions like UBS see declines in the $4,400-$4,600 range as opportunities for long positions. In this period of high uncertainty, tight risk management and cautious capital allocation remain the most appropriate strategies.
$XAUUSD ‌$XAGUSD ‌
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