#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 Powell leaves a divided Federal Reserve, oil prices near $120, and the market faces a triple dilemma

(1) Old Powell steps down, internal Fed divisions at their worst in thirty years
Early this morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision: the target range for the federal funds rate remains unchanged. This outcome was fully within market expectations and did not trigger any volatility. The real shock was hidden in the voting results and the post-meeting statement. Among the 12 voting FOMC members, 8 supported holding rates steady, while 4 voted against. This is the largest internal disagreement on rate decisions at the Fed since 1992, spanning over thirty years. The four dissenting votes are not all from the same camp. One member believed that the current rate level is already too high, economic momentum is waning, and a rate cut should be initiated directly to prevent a recession. The other three held the opposite view, believing that not only should rates not be cut now, but no easing signals should be released at all, as inflation remains stubbornly high and oil prices are spiraling out of control. One side complains that rate hikes are too slow, the other that easing is too early. The Fed’s division is not technical but directional. Powell himself is positioned in a narrow middle ground between the two camps. At his last press conference, he stated: interest rates are approaching a neutral level, and further hikes are unlikely, but before cutting rates, two key variables must first show signs of receding—namely, energy conflicts (the Strait of Hormuz crisis) and the actual impact of tariffs. He explicitly said he would not easily agree to cut rates until oil prices fall back and trade policies become clearer. Additionally, Powell confirmed a previously market-suspected news: he will officially step down as Fed Chair on May 15. But he will not leave the Fed entirely. He will remain as a Federal Reserve Board member until 2028. This means Powell is simply changing his role but remains at the long table that decides global capital flows. The incoming Chair, Waller, has not yet expressed a clear personal stance on monetary policy, and the market is still waiting for his first public statement.

(2) US-Iran tensions escalate again, oil prices nearly double in two months
While the Fed is busy with internal divisions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are intensifying. Iran issued a stern warning: if the US continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will respond with “unprecedented military action.” This is not just a verbal threat. The Revolutionary Guard has deployed more anti-ship missiles and drones near Hormuz Island, and several oil tankers have been “inspected” or seized. Trump’s response was equally tough: “Without giving up nuclear weapons, there will be no deal.” He reiterated that the US will not accept an Iran with nuclear weapons. The standoff caused oil prices to surge. From over $60 per barrel before this round of conflict, prices briefly approached $120 today—almost doubling in less than two months. This is one of the steepest oil price increases since the Gulf War.

The surge in oil prices is transmitting pressure to every corner of the global economy. US courier companies recently announced an 8% fuel surcharge; European natural gas prices have risen; import bills in emerging markets have sharply increased. More importantly, as long as oil prices do not fall, inflation cannot be brought down. Without lower inflation, rate cut expectations cannot rise. Without rate cut expectations, risk assets find it hard to rally. Bitcoin, US stocks, altcoins—all assets dependent on liquidity expectations—are now tightly pinned down by oil prices. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, risk assets will struggle to break out independently.

Historical experience shows that in macro environments with high oil prices and high inflation, crypto markets tend to oscillate or decline rather than break through.

(3) Market status: triple pressures stacking, likely continued sideways movement
Putting these two issues together, the current market is under three major pressures:
First, internal Fed divisions. The dovish and hawkish camps refuse to compromise, making it impossible to form a unified policy signal in the short term. Institutional investors dislike “unclear direction,” so large funds are on hold. Second, soaring oil prices. Geopolitical tensions push up energy costs, which in turn raise inflation expectations. As long as oil prices stay high, the Fed has no reason to turn dovish. Third, shrinking trading volume. Data from major exchanges show that spot and derivatives market volumes have fallen sharply below Q1 averages. Main capital is leaving, leaving only existing positions and short-term trading. With these three pressures combined, the conclusion is clear: the market is likely to continue oscillating, and it’s not the time for heavy positions.

(4) What to watch next: two key signals
In this chaotic environment, the worst thing is to trade based on “feelings.” The next step is to closely monitor two clear signals: Signal 1: When will oil prices turn? Will there be a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz? Can Iran’s upcoming “revised proposal” bring Trump back to the negotiating table? If oil prices significantly fall from around $120, it will be the first signal for risk assets to rebound. Signal 2: Waller’s policy stance after taking office. Powell is about to step down, but Waller has not yet expressed a systematic view on monetary policy. His first public speech after taking office—whether about inflation or hints of rate cuts—will be seen by the market as a new policy anchor. If he leans dovish, markets will preemptively price in rate cuts; if hawkish, risk assets may come under further pressure. Until these two signals are clear, it’s best to do less, watch more, and avoid rushing into heavy positions.