#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 The End of the Powell Era! Signals from the Federal Reserve's April Rate Meeting

#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 Powell Era Comes to an End! Federal Reserve Signals at April Rate Meeting

At the early morning of April 30th Beijing time, the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day policy meeting. In this highly symbolic meeting, the Fed announced that the federal funds rate would remain unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range, marking the third consecutive pause this year. Equally noteworthy as the policy outcome is that this was Powell’s last regular policy meeting as Chairman—his term will officially end on May 15th this year. As a result, the policy signals from the rate statement combined with Powell’s personal remarks and internal disagreements led the market to view this meeting as a significant turning point for the Fed’s future path.

Internal Disagreements

From the rate statement, the Fed continued its policy tone of “maintaining higher interest rates for longer.” The statement noted that “inflation remains elevated,” specifically mentioning rising global energy prices supporting prices, while emphasizing that the Middle East situation introduces “greater uncertainty about the economic outlook.” The statement showed that out of 12 Federal Open Market Committee members, 8 supported this decision, with four dissenting—marking the highest dissent since over 30 years: one member voted to cut rates by 25 basis points, and three supported keeping rates steady but did not endorse a dovish tone in the statement. This rare split directly reflects internal disagreements within the Fed regarding current inflation trends and economic outlook judgments. The market’s most concerned about the rate cut path was also re-priced after this meeting. Although the Fed did not specify a timetable, Powell’s remarks indicated that rate cuts are still in the toolbox for this year, just with a more cautious pace. He explicitly stated, “It’s not appropriate to cut rates now,” and emphasized the need for “greater confidence that inflation is steadily returning to 2%.” Meanwhile, he pointed out that the U.S. economy “continues to expand at a solid pace,” even describing the economy as “quite resilient.” Major international investment banks quickly interpreted this meeting. Goldman Sachs, in a post-meeting report, noted that the Fed’s current core logic is “being patient before confirming the inflation path,” and expects the first rate cut to be delayed compared to previous expectations. JPMorgan, on the other hand, believes the Fed’s statement “reinforces the tone of maintaining high interest rates for longer,” making it difficult for financial conditions to ease significantly in the short term. In contrast, Citigroup’s view is slightly dovish, suggesting that if inflation data clearly declines in the next two to three months, the Fed may still initiate a rate cut cycle within the year.

Uncertainty Becomes a Key Word

Against the backdrop of unresolved Middle East tensions, Powell repeatedly mentioned that fluctuations in energy prices and geopolitical conflicts could disrupt the inflation trajectory, and the duration and impact of these factors “remain difficult to judge.” Notably, Powell also explicitly stated at the press conference that after his term ends in May 2026, he will continue to serve as a Fed governor for some time. This decision breaks decades of precedent—previously, almost no departing chair chose to “remain in a downgraded role.” Powell candidly said he had planned to retire, but “unprecedented” legal attacks from the Trump administration over the past three months left him with “no choice but to stay.” This statement is personally significant and has been interpreted by the market as a form of institutional “stabilizer.” On the same day as the Fed decision, Kevin Woor, nominated by Trump as the next Fed Chair, was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee with 13 votes in favor and 11 against, clearing a key hurdle to the chairmanship. The vote was sharply partisan—Republicans supported unanimously, Democrats opposed unanimously. Democratic lawmakers worry Woor might become a political puppet of the White House, weakening the Fed’s independence. After taking office, whether the new Fed Chair will adjust communication strategies or change the outlook on rate cuts remains highly uncertain. Although Powell chose to stay on as a governor, how his role and influence will evolve also remains unclear. Overall, the April Fed meeting did not provide a clear policy direction but instead sent more complex signals: amid intertwined inflation, growth, and political factors, the Fed is entering a more data-dependent, increasingly divided, and uncertain transition period. This uncertainty may become a core variable in global financial markets for some time to come.