Just noticed cocoa futures are taking a serious dive right now. May NY cocoa down over 5% today, hitting contract lows, and London cocoa posting 2.75-year lows. The whole market's been plummeting for seven weeks straight at this point.

What's driving it? Supply is actually pretty solid - West Africa's looking good for the mid-crop harvest starting in April, global cocoa stocks are up, and both Ivory Coast and Ghana just slashed farmer prices by 30-35%. Meanwhile demand is basically nowhere. Barry Callebaut reported a 22% drop in cocoa sales volume last quarter because chocolate prices are just too high for consumers right now. European grindings fell 8.3% y/y, the worst Q4 in 12 years.

Inventories on ICE just hit a 5.75-month high, which tells you how much buyers are stepping back. The surplus forecasts keep getting bigger too - Rabobank now expects 250,000 MT surplus for 2025/26. Hard to see cocoa bouncing back anytime soon with this much supply pressure and buyers staying on the sidelines.