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No surprises, no dangers, US core PCE in March meets expectations
Core PCE annual rate meets expectations (3.2%), higher than the previous value (3.0%) (but the annual rate compared to last month is not very meaningful)
Core PCE monthly rate meets expectations (3.0%), lower than the previous value (4.0%)
The significance of PCE compared to CPI is actually greater, because CPI is like listed prices, while PCE is like transaction prices, and PCE better reflects Americans' actual price pressures.
And March, as the month when the US and Iran officially went to war, saw the core PCE monthly rate lower than the previous three months.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index shows that consumer confidence in March was stronger than in the previous three months, indicating that the decline in the core PCE monthly rate is probably not due to a contraction in consumption.
Therefore, if the data is not manipulated, the US inflation problem does not seem to be serious.
Currently observing, Trump indeed seems not in a hurry to open the straits... I wonder if the Labor Department coordinated with Trump when compiling the data.