Just saw the markets rebound pretty nicely after that rough start today. Initial panic from the US-Israel military operations against Iran sent everything down hard, but we got some solid dip buying that turned things around.

The S&P 500 ended up +0.07%, Nasdaq climbed +0.44%, though the Dow stayed slightly red at -0.06%. Not a huge move overall, but the rebound narrative is what matters here. The ISM manufacturing data actually came in stronger than expected at 52.4 versus 51.5 forecast, which definitely helped sentiment recover.

What's interesting is how different sectors played out today. Defense stocks absolutely crushed it - Aerovironment up over 12%, Northrop Grumman and RTX both up 4%+. Energy stocks rallied hard too with oil soaring over 65% to hit 8.25-month highs after Iran attacked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Marathon Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy all printing solid gains.

The flip side hit airlines and cruise operators pretty hard though. American Airlines down 45%, United down 3%+. Cruise lines getting wrecked too - Norwegian Cruise Line down 9% after weak guidance. Higher oil prices mean higher jet fuel costs, which kills their margins. Homebuilders also struggling with that 10bp jump in 10-year yields pushing mortgage rates higher.

Here's what caught my attention - crypto-exposed stocks had their own rebound party. Bitcoin up over 6% and trading around those levels, which sent Marathon Digital and MicroStrategy up 8% and 7% respectively. Galaxy Digital, Coinbase, Riot all in the green. Seems like geopolitical uncertainty is pushing some flow into digital assets.

The bond market's been choppy. Initial safe-haven demand sent yields down, but then crude oil's surge raised inflation concerns and yields rebounded. 10-year yield now at 4.04%, up 10.5bp. The ISM prices paid sub-index jumped to 3.5-year highs at 70.5, which is a sticky inflation signal the Fed probably doesn't want to see.

Earnings season is basically done - over 90% of S&P 500 companies reported, and 74% beat expectations. Goldman Sachs is pricing in an $18/bbl risk premium for crude based on potential supply disruptions. This week's focus stays on the Iran situation, more earnings, and economic data drops.

Overall, today's rebound feels more like relief buying than conviction. We're still watching how this geopolitical situation develops. The market's pricing in almost zero chance of rate cuts at the March meeting, so that's locked in. Worth watching how energy prices stabilize and whether inflation concerns stick around.