1. When it comes to inflation, the big brother immediately shifted the blame to oil prices and the situation in the Middle East, saying that short-term inflation has been pushed up, but in the long run it still needs to be pulled back to 2%. In plain terms: don’t expect rate cuts—June basically doesn’t look likely at all. Even now, the market has started pricing in the probability of rate hikes.

2. On policy, he said he wants to “balance the possibility of rate hikes and rate cuts.” It sounds like both sides get covered, but in reality, he’s just pushing rate cuts back—clearly intending to keep high interest rates in place for a while longer, or even longer.
3. As for personnel, this is basically his last press conference. He said he will step down on schedule, and the Federal Reserve won’t be subject to political interference. But what the market cares about more is this: before the new leader takes over, the hawkish tone won’t change. Don’t count on a sudden easing.
4. Every risk point is bearish: chaos in the Middle East, oil prices rising, tariff issues—everything that pushes inflation higher. If inflation can’t be brought down, the Federal Reserve can’t loosen. And for our crypto market, it can only be kept under pressure.
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