These past two days, I’ve seen people using large on-chain transfers and sudden hot/cold wallet movements at exchanges as signals of “smart money.” I’m a little amused and a little worried… To be blunt, even real smart money isn’t necessarily here to save the pool.

For these chain-game-style pools, inflation is still the biggest fear. The more competitive the output, the faster everyone sells their tokens to get their money back—so in the pool, you’re left with only “who can run fastest.” At first, the APR looks pretty enticing, but when you work out the cost, it’s basically all relying on later participants to pick up the slack and subsidize you. Since the output isn’t tied to any real consumption scenario, inflation is like opening the floodgates: the pool gets diluted until, in the end, it can only “stay alive” by doubling the rewards.

Now when I do interactions, I don’t dare to rush in recklessly anymore. I’d rather miss out than be the one paying tuition that’s too expensive… Once you spread out the risks of witchcraft, gas, and time costs, pools with no moat—I basically just watch. That’s it for now.