April 30 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
① U.S. Treasury yields soar + hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve: 30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit 5%, combined with the Fed maintaining steady interest rates, leading to rising long-term inflation expectations, directly suppressing risk assets.

② Oil prices surge + geopolitical tensions: Brent crude oil jumps 7.1% to a four-year high of $126/barrel, market rumors suggest Trump is reviewing military options against Iran.

③ Eric Trump at the Bitcoin 2026 conference stated, “Bitcoin is in the greatest period in history”; Tether proposes merging with Twenty One Capital to create the “leading Bitcoin company”; companies like MicroStrategy continue large-scale purchases.

Fundamentals:
🇺🇸 Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow in April approximately $2.43 billion, total exceeding $58 billion, led by BlackRock IBIT. However, on April 29, there was a noticeable outflow (total around -$137 million in a single day). Whales continue accumulating, financing rates remain negative (shorts paying longs), and the structure still looks bullish.

Technical:
Currently, the market is in a continuous consolidation, at a point where bulls and bears are hard to enter. From the current order book, the depth of the pullback is unlikely to be deep because the weekly chart is in the process of restoring the zero axis. Today is the last day of April, and tomorrow will close the monthly candle; the monthly line is also approaching the zero axis, meaning the downward space is gradually limited. However, on a smaller timeframe, the decline has not yet bottomed out. The key zone to watch for downward movement is between 73,700 and 70,800. As long as this zone holds, the trend will likely rebound upward. Currently, even if prices dip to 70,800, it remains a good entry opportunity, aiming for a weekly-level zero axis correction. Short-term resistance will be around 77,500 to 80,500. In summary, the next couple of days are expected to be dominated by oscillation and correction.