April 30, 2026

An established new project, megaETH, is finally launching TGE after a year. I’ve been following this project, not because I participated in the initial offering, but because I was involved in arbitrage. I originally thought it would go live soon and end the arbitrage, but now the funds have been tied up for a year, and during this period, there’s also the risk of potential short squeeze. The good news is that, as the overall market declined, the market cap of megaETH also dropped significantly, from an initial valuation of 4-5 billion USD down to nearly 1 billion, which was the valuation during the public sale. So I only bought a little at that time. If today’s TGE goes smoothly and the market cap reaches around 2 billion, then my investment wouldn’t be a total loss after a year. But in the end, the return should be average.
However, I remember that the similar star projects launched at the same time as megaETH, stable and XPL, also plummeted terribly. This is one of the main reasons why the crypto space is criticized—those so-called “top-tier” projects, with high funding, opening at dozens or even hundreds of billions, only to see their market cap drop 90% or even 99%, causing retail investors in the secondary market to get slaughtered. megaETH simply didn’t launch on the secondary market when the market was hot; otherwise, with a valuation of 4-5 billion, some retail investors would definitely have suffered losses. Maybe I was one of them, after all, I got cut once on XPL.
Back to the market situation, the past two days, the overall market continued to decline slightly, with Ethereum dropping back to $2,300.