Breaking News! The most divided Federal Reserve in 32 years sparks chaos—Four dissenters blow up Powell's final battle—Will the rate cut dream shatter?

On April 29th, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting concluded, with the federal funds rate remaining unchanged for the third time, locked at 3.50%–3.75%. The market initially thought "no surprises," but internal dissent directly contradicted that—four members voted against, marking the most divided record since 1992!
This meeting was also the last for current Chair Jerome Powell (he will officially step down on May 15th, succeeded by Kevin Warsh).
Powell smiled at the press conference and said, "Healthy debate is normal," but the attitude of the four dissenting members has made the future path crystal clear: rate cuts? Not yet!

Why the sudden firmness?

The official statement points directly to two major issues:
• Inflation "remaining high," with March CPI hitting a two-year high, mainly driven by Middle Eastern (Iran conflict) pushing up global energy prices.
• Although the economy remains resilient, employment growth has clearly slowed, yet the unemployment rate has not decreased.

Even more intense, among the four dissenters, one directly called for a "25 basis point rate cut now," while the other three opposed the "dovish stance" in the statement, fearing the market might think rate cuts are inevitable next time. Simply put: the Fed has shifted from "ready to cut" to "wait for data, then decide whether to hike."

Powell emphasized at his final press conference that the economy is "highly resilient," and current policy is "well-positioned" to move either way—raise or cut. But he also admitted that the high uncertainty brought by Middle Eastern conflicts forces the Fed to keep a close eye on both inflation and employment.

Market suddenly becomes alert

After the decision, although U.S. stocks fluctuated slightly, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields clearly strengthened. Investors immediately understood: the chance of a rate cut in June is almost zero, and even the number of cuts in the second half of the year will be significantly revised downward. The new Chair Warsh has a more hawkish style, and the dovish expectations of the Powell era are officially coming to an end.

This is not just an ordinary "stand pat," but the final warning before Powell's era ends—the inflation alarm has sounded, and the rate cut train is paused.
The next meeting in June, and the first statement after the new Chair takes office, will determine where global funds will flow in the second half of 2026.
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