ETH spot price approximately $2,270-$2,272, BTC approximately $76,290-$76,310. The FOMC decision has been implemented, but geopolitical negotiations remain in a tug-of-war. Currently, ETH daily MACD is showing a bearish crossover below, and RSI has entered the short-term oversold zone, making short positions more attractive. The following will be elaborated on six dimensions in turn.

1. Geopolitics: "Controlled Collapse" Continues to Suppress Risk Assets
Early morning Beijing time on April 30, Trump explicitly rejected Iran’s previous ceasefire proposal and hinted at preparing further military actions, causing a sharp rise in oil prices and ongoing inflation concerns transmitted to the crypto market. The UN Security Council vetoed Iran’s plan to impose tolls through the Strait of Hormuz, with the daily transit volume still less than 8%, and hundreds of ships remain "stranded."
However, there is also a glimmer of hope for negotiations: Trump publicly stated on April 30 that negotiations with Iran are ongoing via phone; Putin also proposed suggestions regarding Iran’s nuclear program, indicating major powers’ diplomacy behind the scenes. Overall, the situation remains in a deadlock of "stalemate + negotiations not broken."
Trading insight: The geopolitical deadlock continues to suppress risk assets. Any breakthrough in negotiations could trigger a short-term rebound, but maintaining the status quo will prolong the bear trend. This is a safety cushion for short positions, not a catalyst for adding longs.
2. Economic Policy: FOMC "Hold Steady but Deepening Divisions"
On April 30, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that the federal funds rate target range would remain at 3.50%-3.75%, holding steady for the third consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. However, the decision was unprecedentedly divided, with an 8-4 vote, the highest opposition since October 1992.
· Dovish representative: Director Milan voted against, supporting a 25 basis point rate cut
· Hawkish representatives: Harker, Kashkari, Logan voted to keep rates unchanged but opposed including easing bias in the statement
· Powell’s stance leans hawkish: After stepping down as chair, he will remain as a director. When asked about rate cuts, he said "it requires a lot more confidence," emphasizing that rate cuts amid oil price and tariff shocks still require waiting.
Trading insight: The FOMC decision is now priced in, and the overall hawkish signal has been released, with the market digesting it. Next, the market will be dominated by geopolitical factors, and technical indicators will regain their effectiveness.
3. Technical Indicators: Daily Waterfall MACD vs. 4H Bullish Divergence Emerging
ETHUSDT
1H (Chart 1) MA7=2267.64, MA18=2259.16, Bollinger Bands converging between 2257-2275, KDJ J=88.88, RSI(6)=68.92, severely overbought, short-term correction needed
4H (Chart 2) Price below MA7/18/60, MACD histogram 3.78 (still positive), RSI(6)=55.48 neutral, MACD still below zero but golden cross formed, RSI above 50 with room to rebound
1D (Chart 4) MACD histogram = -11.18, DIF=-2.65 below DEA=8.53, daily MACD still in a bearish crossover, but the Bollinger middle band at 2417 exerts strong resistance, support around 2190
From the daily MACD perspective, ETH has not yet shown clear bottom reversal signals; the triple top pressure remains.
BTCUSDT
1H MACD histogram=85.0, DIF=-116.1 crossing above DEA=-201.1, MACD below zero with a golden cross, rebound momentum sufficient
4H MACD histogram=-11.1, KDJ J=25.3 at low level just rebounded, bearish momentum waning, K value rising from low, rebound demand building
1D MACD histogram=-355.3, KDJ J=56.5 death cross downward, daily remains in a bearish trend, price close to upper MA18 at 76,248
Overall technical conclusion: Short-term oversold, rebound demand strong, but the large-cycle daily bearish trend has not reversed. Strategy mainly focuses on "shorting on rebounds."
4. Liquidation Data: Dual "Nuclear" Traps
ETH: Upward short liquidation peaks at 2,335-2,367
If ETH breaks through 2,335, short liquidation strength reaches $906 million; above 2,367, it reaches $1.34B; above 2,404, $1.09B.
If ETH falls to 2,144-2,141, long liquidation strength is $632 million and $281 million respectively.
BTC: Upward short liquidation peaks at 78,754-79,561
If BTC breaks through 78,754, short liquidation strength reaches $1.68B; above 79,561, it reaches $1.89B. Falling below 72,073 triggers about $1 billion in long liquidations.
Trading insight: Liquidation peaks are concentrated above 78,754 and 2,335. When rebounding into these zones, liquidation buy orders will accelerate the rise—meaning avoid shorting at these levels, as liquidation waves can engulf you. The best entry for shorts is before the liquidation wave starts—around 76,800-77,200.
5. On-Chain Data and Whale Movements: Smart Money "High Sell, Low Buy"
BTC: Whales deposit large amounts into exchanges, institutions are distributing at highs
On April 27, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of 9,905 BTC (about $754 million) into exchanges in a single day, the highest in nearly 30 days. Notably, the CEX whale ratio surged to 0.707, the highest that week—indicating recent inflows are mainly driven by whales, and smart money is actively selling at highs. Analysts suggest that unless inflows are quickly absorbed, the probability of retesting $74,000-$75,000 in the short term significantly increases.
ETH: Intense battle between bulls and bears, with surprisingly strong absorption capacity from multiple sides
On-chain data from April 29 shows that a dormant ICO whale, inactive for nearly 11 years, sold all 10,000 ETH at an average price of $2,027 in about an hour, with ETH price only dropping about 1.5%, indicating strong absorption by bulls.
A whale related to BIT used 15x leverage to open a new long position of 30,000 ETH (about $68M), with accumulated profits exceeding $59 million, showing ongoing game-playing.
Trading insight: The dual core conclusion from on-chain and liquidation data is—when near $2,200, whales are actively accumulating; above $2,350, whales are actively distributing. Currently around 2,272, between two whale actions, upside risk is limited, downside space is gradually opening.
6. Bull and Bear Scenario Analysis and Strategy Explanation
Strategy 1: Rebound Short
✨ Core logic: Use the technical opportunity of price rebound to short at short-term moving average resistance in a bearish trend, capturing pullbacks. Daily MACD confirms a bearish crossover, 4H and 1H RSI are in short-term overbought zones, bullish resistance weakens. At this point, shorting on rebounds has the highest win rate. Since the FOMC decision is already implemented, the overall hawkish signal has been released, and technical validity is restored.
· ETH position: Short in batches around 2,295-2,315, with stop-loss above 2,370. First take profit at 2,260, second at 2,235, risk-reward ratio about 2.3:1.
· BTC position: Short in batches around 76,800-77,200, with stop-loss at 77,800. First take profit at 75,800, second at 75,200, risk-reward ratio about 2.2:1.
Strategy 2: Extreme Bottom-Fishing Long
✨ Core logic: On-chain data shows whales actively absorbing near 2,200 ETH, and large long liquidations also pile up around 250 BTC. If prices fall to these zones and show signs of stabilization, consider small left-side bottom-fishing. Tight stops, quick entries and exits, aiming for rebound recovery. Risk-reward ratio about 2.2:1 and 2.1:1, but this is a left-side trade, positions should be further reduced to less than 1/3 of normal size, and if the first rebound wave is missed, exit immediately—avoid holding through.
Note: The above take-profit levels are within the technical matrix coverage before the FOMC; once reached, take profits in batches to avoid being caught by rebounds.
Unified Risk Control
· Position: Recommend controlling single-side positions at 5%-10% of total account value per coin
· Leverage: Perpetual contracts leverage controlled at 3-5x
· Universal stop-loss: ETH if 4H closes above 2,370, BTC if above 77,800, invalidating bearish logic, exit unconditionally
· Time window: Afternoon of April 30 to May 1 is a period of dense geopolitical news; it’s advisable to reduce overnight holdings.