April 30 Market Overview: Powell's Farewell, 8 to 4 Shocking Split, Brent Breaks $120, MAG4 Earnings Report Finds Champagne in the Trenches

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US stocks: Dow falls for the fifth straight day, Nasdaq holds the front with tech support

On Wednesday, Wall Street went through the most chaotic day since this rebound began.

The Dow plunged 280.12 points (-0.57%), closing at 48,861.81—its fifth consecutive day of decline, quietly setting the longest losing streak since the Iran-war rebound. The S&P 500 was nearly flat, down only 0.04% to close at 7,135.95. The Nasdaq flipped green and rose slightly by 0.04% to close at 24,673.24—one of the most curious numbers on the entire daily chart: tech stocks pinned the market in place with expectations for post-market earnings.

Two sets of numbers split the logic of the day into two completely different halves: before the open, the Fed’s statements and oil prices; after the close, four sets of results that would determine where things go next.

After Wednesday’s close, four companies—Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon—together released their Q1 earnings reports. The conclusion: the businesses are strong, but the Capex bills are becoming harder to explain.

Alphabet, the top score of the whole session.

Revenue was $10.99 billion, beating expectations by $107 billion. Earnings per share came in at $5.11, but with $3.69 billion in unrealized equity gains included, even adjusted results still far exceeded the $2.63 expectation. Google Cloud grew 63% to $200 billion, setting a record for the highest growth rate, completely trampling last quarter’s 48%. Search grew 19%, and YouTube ad revenue rose 11%, accelerating from last quarter’s 9%. Net profit rose 81% year over year to $6.257 billion. Meanwhile, Alphabet described its 2027 Capex as “significantly higher” than 2026. The stock rose 6.6% after hours—no controversy.

Google Cloud’s 63% growth rate is the strongest line item on this earnings report. It proves one thing: demand for AI in cloud computing has not peaked, and Alphabet is moving to grab the slice of the market that Microsoft had left behind.

Microsoft, respectable—but with a thorn.

EPS of $4.27 beat expectations of $4.06, while revenue of $8.289 billion beat expectations of $8.146 billion. Azure grew 40%, AI annualized revenue $370 billion (up 123% year over year), and Copilot paid users surpassed 20 million. These numbers, on their own, are solid.

The thorn is in guidance. The median Q4 revenue guidance is around $8.725 billion, below the market expectation of $8.753 billion. The operating profit margin is expected to fall from 46.3% to 44%. More critically, full-year Capex was raised to $190 billion—up 61% from 2025—with $250 billion coming from direct cost pass-through of higher chip and memory prices, the new bill after the war and stacked AI demand. The stock rose slightly at first after hours, then reversed and fell, ending down by more than 1%.

Last week, Microsoft quietly renegotiated with OpenAI, ending the revenue-sharing agreement so that OpenAI can freely enter AWS and Google Cloud. In essence, this is Microsoft admitting that betting on OpenAI’s exclusivity is becoming an increasingly expensive option.

Meta, ads are through the roof, but Capex scares the market.

Adjusted EPS was $7.31 (shown as $10.44 after including $8.03 billion in tax benefits). Revenue was $5.631 billion, up 33% year over year. Ad impressions rose 19%, and the price per ad increased 12%. The ad engine is running normally. Q2 revenue guidance was $5.8–6.1 billion, with the midpoint exactly above expectations.

But the market only cares about one number: full-year Capex was raised from $115–135 billion to $125–145 billion, a one-sided increase of $100 billion. Meta attributed it to “higher component prices and increased data center costs,” which directly points to supply-chain cost pass-through driven by Brent $120 . Daily active users at home fell slightly to 356 million quarter over quarter; Meta shifted part of the blame to “Iran internet disruptions”—a novel explanation, but one that cannot be disproven. In the call, Zuckerberg said Meta is “moving toward providing superintelligence to billions,” yet the stock still fell about 6% after hours. The market’s verdict is clear: the business is fine, but the bills are terrifying.

Amazon, the biggest surprise of the night.

EPS was $2.78, while expectations were only $1.64—nearly a 70% beat. Revenue was $18.152 billion versus expected $17.73 billion. AWS grew 28% to $3.759 billion, the fastest growth in three years, also exceeding the market’s 26% expectation. Ads were $1.724 billion, also above expectations. The stock rose 4%+ after hours.

But one number from CFO Brian Olsavsky is worth remembering: free cash flow over the past 12 months collapsed 95%, leaving only $12 billion—because $200 billion in Capex has poured almost all cash into infrastructure. Amazon also added a further detail: Capex increased again due to the satellite internet plan, Leo. On the same day, Amazon announced that OpenAI models are officially entering AWS, ending OpenAI’s prior exclusive reliance on Azure.

Federal Reserve: Powell’s last time holding the gavel, an earth-shattering 8 to 4 split

On Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m., the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would keep the interest-rate range at 3.50% to 3.75% unchanged, fully in line with market expectations.

But that is not what is truly worth recording about this meeting.

The real news is the vote result: 8 to 4, with four commissioners opposing maintaining the status quo. How rare is this kind of internal split? In recent years, Fed votes are typically nearly unanimous; even 1 dissent vote is usually a sign of “intense debate.” Four votes against in a rate decision is an extremely rare signal. Inside the FOMC there are substantive disagreements about the current path: some hawks believe inflation driven by oil prices is already dangerous enough, while some doves worry that the Iran-war drag on the real economy is starting to show.

At the press conference, Powell said what felt like the most historically meaningful line of his 18-year career in public service:

“What we’re facing are four supply shocks—pandemic, the Ukraine war, tariffs, and now Iran and the surge in oil prices. Each supply shock has the ability to push up both inflation and unemployment at the same time, trapping central banks in a real dilemma. The right approach is to try to balance the two goals as best as possible.”

Then, the Fed chair—who has been harassed, sued, and threatened with dismissal by Trump since 2018—used his final press conference to announce two things. First, he will step down as chair when his term ends (May 15), but remain as a Fed governor until the judicial investigation into the Fed headquarters renovation “is brought to a transparent and conclusive end.” Second, he publicly congratulated Kevin Warsh, saying “this will be a very normal transition,” and added a remark that left the room silent: “I believe he can withstand political pressure. I will take his words seriously.”

After Powell’s speech, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury jumped by more than 6 basis points to 4.41%, and the 2-year yield rose by more than 9 basis points to 3.94%. The market’s conclusion was simple: higher rates will last longer—that is all Powell can say at this moment.

Kevin Warsh’s vote in the Senate Banking Committee was also completed the same day, passing along party lines 13 to 11. Senator Thom Tillis previously tried to block it, with conditions that the Department of Justice drop its investigation into Powell; on Wednesday, he received that promise and voted in favor. The full Senate’s confirmation is expected to be completed within a few weeks, putting the Fed in a countdown to the post-Powell era.

Oil prices: Brent at $120, Trump announces an indefinite blockade

If last week’s UAE exit from OPEC was a landmine, then Trump’s line on Wednesday was the detonator.

The Wall Street Journal cited US officials saying Trump explicitly told his aides: the maritime blockade of Iranian ports will continue indefinitely until Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal. No proposals for any peace talks will be accepted. Axios later confirmed that Trump has officially rejected the peace plan that Iran relayed through Pakistan.

The oil market reacted immediately.

Brent crude surged more than 6% that day, closing at $118.03 per barrel; intraday it briefly touched $120.27—its highest point since June 2022, and also the highest since the outbreak of the Iran war. WTI crude rose nearly 7% and closed at $106.88, the first time it has closed above the $100 level since the war began. US energy inventory data released the same day showed a sharp drop in crude and refined product inventories; US crude exports hit a record high for that week, breaking through 6 million barrels per day, and expectations that a supply gap would narrow further were shattered.

The hidden logic behind oil prices is now crystal clear here: this is not a war that will end within a few weeks. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for more than nine weeks, and the inflation effect on the US economy is spreading from energy to overall prices. CPI is at 3.3%, PPI at 0.7%, and the Fed has just told the market it cannot cut rates. Brent at $120 is a figure not seen since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022—back then the peak was $127, and it took about three months to drag the global economy into an inflation crisis.

This time, no one knows where the peak is.

Gold: $4,591 breaks through support, overwhelmed by inflation and rates

Gold kept coming under pressure on April 29, staying around $4,590–$4,610, with rebounds lacking strength.

The logic has not changed: Brent $120 drives up inflation expectations → the dollar strengthens → gold faces pressure. At the same time, the jump in US bond yields to 4.41% itself raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. This abnormal structure—when the more intense the war and the higher the oil prices, the less gold rises—has continued for four full weeks.

The only thing that could change this structure is: oil prices reaching a peak. But after Trump announced the indefinite blockade, the timeline for that turning point was pushed back again.

Cryptocurrency: $75,100, the other side of Brent $120

On April 29, Bitcoin violently fluctuated between $75,100 and $77,800, then after the Fed decision it was pressured back down to around $75,100, with an intraday swing of more than $2,700. Ethereum opened at $2,289 and traded around $2,330. The total global crypto market cap is about $2.63 trillion, and the fear-and-greed index is around 43, having fallen into the panic zone.

The mechanism is very clear: Trump announces an indefinite blockade → Brent breaks above $120 → Fed split 8 to 4 + rate hold → 10-year US Treasury yield jumps to 4.41%. The end point of this entire chain is: rate-cut expectations are postponed indefinitely, and the discount rate for risk assets rises. The $80,000 threshold for Bitcoin is now a heavier door than it was half a month ago.

Bitunix analyst issued a warning on Wednesday: if Brent stays above $110 , liquidity flowing into the crypto market will continue to be compressed because higher oil prices mean consumers and institutions spend more cash elsewhere.

But at deep night, there is a side note worth recording.

On the same day—after Powell finished speaking and after Trump announced the indefinite blockade—Meta quietly announced the rollout of stablecoin payment features across its entire platform. This is the closest move to Zuckerberg’s 2019 Libra dream after four straight years. A Fortune report mentioned that the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has already fallen to 57%, and discussions about petrodollar erosion have never been closer to reality.

These two things happen on the same day—this is not coincidence; it is a matter of logic.

Today’s wrap-up: Powell is gone, $120 oil price is left behind, and MAG4 says the business is fine but the bills are up

On April 29, three things happened at the same time, jointly defining where the ceiling for this rebound is:

US stocks: Dow down 280.12 points (-0.57%) to 48,861.81, five consecutive days of decline. The S&P and Nasdaq are nearly flat. The Fed voted the historically rare 8 to 4 split to keep rates at 3.5%–3.75%, Powell delivered a farewell speech, and the handover to Warsh is entering countdown mode. The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.41%, and the expectation of high rates lasting longer was effectively sealed.

Oil prices: Brent surged 6%+ to close at $118.03, intraday touching $120.27; WTI closed at $106.88—both hitting new highs since the start of the war. Trump announced the indefinite blockade, wiping the timeline for any peace process clean again.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin violently shook in the $75,100–$77,800 range, closing near $75,100. Rate-cut expectations have been delayed, and the logic of liquidity compression dominates—$80,000 is out of reach in the near term.

After-hours MAG4 summary: Alphabet soared 6.6% (Google Cloud +63%, the best performer); Amazon rose 4%+ (big EPS beat, AWS +28%); Microsoft slightly down (results beat expectations but guidance weighed it down, Capex $190 billion); Meta down 6% (Capex another $100 billion, users slightly down, Iran taking the blame).

The market now only cares about one question: Brent at $120, or $140?

If the current level is the top, the upcoming Q2 corporate earnings will reflect rising costs but steady demand, and tech stocks will still have support. If Brent repeats the 2022 path and continues to push toward $130–$140, inflation expectations will break past the Fed’s tolerance limit. The first meeting after Warsh takes office is very likely to be a rate hike—that would be an uncomfortable market reset that everyone dislikes.

At least today, one thing is already certain: Powell used his final press conference to tell the world something he had never fully finished saying during his term—the independence of the central bank is something that must be guarded with everything at stake.