#原油价格上涨 #原油价格上涨: Crude Oil Surges Past $120 – What's Driving the Rally?

Article Date: April 30, 2026

Introduction

The hashtag is trending as global oil markets witness one of the most dramatic price surges in recent years. Brent crude has broken past $120 per barrel** for the first time since June 2022, while WTI is trading firmly above **$106 . Investors are scrambling to understand the forces behind this rally – and more importantly, how high prices can go.

Current Prices: The Numbers

As of April 29, 2026:

Benchmark Price Change
Brent Crude $118 - $120/bbl +6% on the day
WTI Crude $106 - $108/bbl +7% on the day

Brent has now posted eight consecutive days of gains – a streak not seen in years .

What's Driving the Surge?

1. The Middle East Supply Shock

The primary driver is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil passes – remains effectively closed. According to Goldman Sachs, Middle East crude output losses have reached approximately 14.5 million barrels per day .

To put this in perspective:

· Global oil market has swung from a 1.8 million bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 million bpd deficit in Q2 2026
· Over $500 billion worth of crude supply has been lost since the Iran conflict began
· Global inventories are drawing at a record pace of 11-12 million bpd in April alone

2. Failed Peace Talks

Expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire have collapsed. A second round of peace talks scheduled in Pakistan was cancelled by President Trump on short notice . Trump stated the US holds "all the cards" and Iran can negotiate by phone.

The White House has instructed US oil companies to prepare for a potential multi-month blockade of Iranian ports . This signals that the supply disruption may persist far longer than markets initially priced in.

3. Crashing Inventories 📉

US inventory data released April 29 showed:

· Crude inventories plunged by over 6 million barrels – far exceeding the expected 200,000 barrel draw
· Gasoline and distillate inventories also dropped sharply
· US crude exports hit a record high, exceeding 6 million bpd

With summer driving season approaching, demand is set to rise just as supplies tighten further.

What Are the Experts Saying?

Major financial institutions have sharply upgraded their oil price forecasts:

Institution Brent Forecast WTI Forecast Notes
Goldman Sachs $90/bbl (Q4 2026) $83/bbl (Q4 2026) Up from $80/$75; risk skewed to upside
Citi $110 (Q2), $95 (Q3), $80 (Q4) - Bull case: $150 if disruption continues
UBS $100 by end-June - Sees potential >$150 if Hormuz remains closed
Macquarie $89 (2026 avg) $83 Warns of $200 oil if war continues to June
J.P. Morgan $100 (Q2), $90 (Q3), $80 (Q4) - -
Barclays $85 (2026 avg) - Assumes Hormuz normalizes in 2-3 weeks

The "Demand Destruction" Phenomenon

As prices surge, economists are warning of demand destruction – a scenario where high prices force consumers and businesses to reduce consumption. Goldman Sachs projects:

· Global oil demand to fall by 1.7 million bpd in Q2 2026
· Full-year 2026 demand to decline by 100,000 bpd versus 2025

However, some analysts argue that prices may need to climb much higher – potentially to $250 per barrel – before meaningful demand destruction occurs .

Ripple Effects Across Markets

The oil surge is sending shockwaves through other asset classes:

· Stock Markets: European indices fell sharply, with London's FTSE 100 dropping 1.16%
· Gold & Silver: Precious metals are under pressure as higher oil fuels inflation expectations, keeping the Fed hawkish
· Federal Reserve: The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% but showed the deepest internal分歧 since 1992 – 4 members dissented
· Energy Transition: The IEA suggests this crisis may permanently accelerate renewable and nuclear energy adoption

Wildcard: UAE Exits OPEC

Adding to the turmoil, the UAE announced it will leave OPEC in May . While analysts say this has limited short-term impact, it represents the deepest rift in OPEC's history. Long-term, UAE's exit could increase supply and pressure prices lower – but for now, the market remains focused on immediate supply shortages.

Key Levels to Watch

Scenario Brent Price WTI Price
Current $118-120 $106-108
Near-term target $130-150 $115-130
Severe disruption (bull case) $150-200+ $140-180+

Final Word

The trend reflects a genuine supply crisis, not speculative froth. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, inventories plummeting, and peace talks stalled, the path of least resistance for oil prices remains higher.

For traders and investors:

· Short-term: Bullish momentum remains strong; watch for pullbacks as profit-taking opportunities
· Medium-term: The key variable is when – or if – the Strait of Hormuz reopens
· Long-term: This shock may permanently reshape global energy markets and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels

In a supply-driven crisis, price is the only remaining shock absorber. Trade carefully, respect the volatility, and always manage risk.