📊April 29 20:37 $BTC US stock hourly technical analysis indicates a generally bearish trend (for reference only)

(Current price of 70,000 can directly enter short positions)

Current price: 70,000 (Bitcoin)

• Major trend (4H/Daily): High-level oscillation leaning bearish, death cross

• Minor cycle (15min/1H): Low-level golden cross → rebound correction

• Trading position: Golden cross is a rebound shorting opportunity, not a reversal to go long

Below is directly usable: trend logic + entry/stop-loss/take-profit + golden cross handling.
1. Bearish trend logic (short at 77,000)

1. Structure: Double top at 79,500 falling back → break of key support → entering 75,000–79,000 high-level oscillation leaning bearish, 77,000 is a resistance zone for rebounds.

2. Moving averages (4H):

◦ MA30/60 flattening and pressing down, price oscillating below MA30 → bears dominate.

◦ 1H: Short-term golden cross for rebound, but limited by 4H death cross → rebound space is limited.

3. MACD:

◦ Daily: Death cross at high level, increasing green bars → bears dominate.

◦ 1H: Golden cross at low level → only a short-term correction rebound.

4. Volume: Increasing volume on decline, decreasing volume on rebound → weak rebound, strong decline.

In one sentence: The major trend is bearish, and the small cycle golden cross is an entry opportunity for shorts.
2. Short at 77,000: Entry/Stop-loss/Take-profit (execute directly)

1) Entry

• Short in the 76,800–77,200 range (current price 77,000, enter directly)

• Condition: 1H golden cross rebound does not effectively break through 77,800.

2) Stop-loss (must be set)

• Stop-loss: 77,800

• Reason: 77,800 is recent dense resistance + above 4H MA30, breaking it invalidates the bearish setup, exit short positions.

3) Take-profit (partial, target under golden cross)

• First take-profit: 76,000–75,500 (short-term strong support, target for 1H golden cross rebound fall)

• Second take-profit: 74,500–74,000 (lower boundary of the range, target of 4H bearish trend)

• Aggressive take-profit: 73,000 (mid-term strength/weakness dividing line)

4) Golden cross handling (key)

• 1H golden cross rebound: only add to short positions on rallies, never chase longs.

• If volume increases and breaks through 77,800 after the golden cross: reduce short positions/exit with stop-loss, wait for a second short at 78,500–79,000.
3. Position sizing and risk control (contract survival)

• Leverage: 5–8 times (high volatility at 77,000, avoid heavy positions)

• Position: Use 10%–15% of total funds to enter, do not add at 77,500, only lightly top up after stabilizing at 75,500.

• Risk-reward ratio: Stop-loss 800 points, first take-profit 1,000–1,500 points → 1:1.2–1:1.8, acceptable.
4. One-sentence execution

Short around 77,000, stop-loss at 77,800, take-profit at 76,000→74,500; 1H golden cross is a rebound shorting opportunity.