Powell prepares for his final dance in office, and the market is about to enter a period of chaos and volatility!

At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, with a 99.6% probability of holding rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This is the third time keeping rates unchanged, with no surprises in the usual news.

The focus is on the last press conference before Powell steps down at 2:30. With inflation still high and Middle East tensions persisting, although the surface appears hawkish, his imminent departure will significantly weaken his actual market influence.

The new chair, Waller, officially took office on May 15. After taking office, he may cancel routine press conferences and generally lean towards a dovish rate cut. The market has already priced in expectations of easing, betting on rate cuts in June and September, making a strong one-sided rally unlikely in the short term.

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin has been consolidating at high levels for days, showing signs of a slight break below. The resistance at 79,500 has been repeatedly tested and failed to break through. Before and after the decision, a false breakout pattern is likely, with strong resistance between 78,000 and 79,500.

Even if Powell releases hawkish comments, bulls will likely retreat, and a rally would be an excellent opportunity for shorting.

BTC Price Movement Projection:

1. 02:00 Decision: Rates remain unchanged, slight rally to test 78,000—78,500—79,500, a false breakout trap.

2. 02:30 Press Conference: Emphasize inflation risks, delay rate cuts, the market quickly pulls back, with support levels at 76,000—75,000—74,000. As the monthly close approaches, this range will see support from buyers.

Overall, the outlook is bearish, mainly deploying short positions in batches at 78,000, 79,100, and 80,300.