ETH Evening Market Analysis:

Core changes compared to the morning session: Price rebounded from the $2,285 low in a V-shape to the $2,346 high, with three major technical changes—① confirmation of double bottom pattern (bottom signal), ② Bollinger Bands narrowing to a 30-day extreme low (trend reversal imminent), ③ daily MACD bearish divergence appears (upward momentum weakening). The pattern shifts from "slightly bearish oscillation" to "bottom confirmation + trend reversal imminent."
Bears: Daily MACD bearish divergence + ETH ETF turning into net outflow + FOMC hawkish risk + negative funding rate + Coinbase premium leaning bearish. If $2,346 cannot be broken through, the bearish divergence may trigger a pullback, first targeting $2,258 (SAR stop-loss line), losing this level would turn the daily trend bearish, with a further decline to $2,200–$2,260. FOMC hawkish stance may accelerate the drop to $2,100–$2,158.
Bulls: Double bottom pattern confirmed + Bollinger Bands narrowing indicating trend reversal (usually upward breakout) + 15-minute bullish alignment + strong DMI rise + volume increase + SAR bullish stop-loss at $2,258 precisely defended + Fear & Greed Index at 26 (extreme fear = medium-term bottom signal) + ETH outperforming BTC. If volume breaks through $2,346 → $2,360–$2,390, confirming the double bottom neckline breakout, the rebound can target $2,400+ → $2,500–$2,760. The upward breakout after Bollinger Bands narrowing often involves significant volatility, with larger space.
Key observation points:
Bollinger Bands trend direction: After extreme narrowing, large volatility is imminent, and the double bottom pattern points more to an upward breakout probability.
Can $2,346 be broken? Today's high + double bottom neckline; a breakout confirms the bottom.
Can $2,258 hold? Daily SAR stop-loss line + today's low; losing this level would turn the daily trend bearish.
FOMC statement impact: Today’s most critical event risk.
Will ETF fund outflows continue? Continuous outflows will weaken the rebound foundation.
Trading reference:
Trend reversal imminent, bias toward bullish: double bottom + Bollinger Bands narrowing + volume increase + outperforming BTC, upward trend probability about 55-60%.
Long position reference: If volume breaks through $2,346 and stabilizes, consider a small long position, with stop-loss below $2,290, targets at $2,360 → $2,390 → $2,400+.
Defensive reference: $2,258 is the daily SAR stop-loss line + today's low; if it falls back to this level, observe whether support forms again; losing this level suggests considering a small short-term short, with stop-loss above $2,310, targets at $2,200 → $2,158.
Mid-term layout: Fear & Greed Index at 26 + double bottom confirmation suggest a possible medium-term bottom formation, with $2,200–$2,260 being a good medium-term entry zone.
⚠️ Bear divergence risk: Even if an upward breakout occurs, daily bearish divergence means the breakout may be followed by a pullback; rebound trades require stricter stop-loss and should avoid chasing highs.