I've noticed an interesting dynamic in the markets — oil has once again surged above $100, and this is not just an energy news story. It's a macro shock that is already spilling over into cryptocurrency assets.

Apparently, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are putting pressure on oil supply, which triggers a chain reaction: rising oil prices → inflation persists → central banks hesitate to cut rates → liquidity tightens. And now, risk assets, including crypto, are experiencing macroeconomic pressure.

Currently, the cryptocurrency market is reacting interestingly. Bitcoin stays above $77K, Ethereum has risen slightly to $2.33K — this is not panic, but rather positioning. The market is waiting for a full realization of the scale of the situation. Weekends usually create low liquidity, so the real crypto rally could become more apparent when traditional markets return to full strength.

Economic data confirms concerns. PCE inflation remains around 3%, growth is slowing but not collapsing. This is a classic stagflation environment, which historically does not favor risk assets. But crypto is no longer just following its narratives — it has become a macro asset now, sensitive to oil prices, rate expectations, and geopolitical risks.

In this environment, volatility is more the rule than the exception. The directional impulse can be sharp in either direction — it all depends on how macroeconomic events develop in the coming days. Crypto growth or decline — both scenarios are possible, but one thing is certain: it won't be boring. Stay tuned for updates.