I've been seeing rumors circulating on social media about an upcoming altcoin season, but when I check CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index, it still hovers around 31. Basically, the market is still led by Bitcoin; it's not the speculative chaos that characterizes true altseasons.

That said, there are interesting technical signals I can't ignore. Several analysts are producing long-term market cap charts of altcoins, highlighting previous cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021, and now projecting 2026 as the next inflection point. The visual pattern is convincing: rebounds from ascending trend lines, each associated with massive capital rotation from Bitcoin into riskier assets.

What caught my attention most was the OTHERS/BTC chart on the monthly timeframe. The MACD has just crossed upward, similar to what happened in 2020 before the 2021 altseason exploded. Additionally, a bearish wedge is forming, which is technically a reversal pattern. If confirmed, it would signal that altcoins are starting to outperform Bitcoin again.

But here’s the catch: the altcoin season index remains low. That means that although there is some rotation happening, we are not in a true altseason where liquidity is massively distributed among large caps, mid-caps, and speculative assets. It looks more like a rotation watchlist rather than a confirmed phase.

The macro timing suggests 2026 as a potential window, but timing models work best with confirmation indicators. As long as the altcoin season index doesn’t rise substantially, I will continue to see this as isolated gains, not the broad movement that defines a real altseason.