After the tide of geopolitical narratives recedes, the market is returning to a phase dominated by "macro pricing power."

Currently, the chart shows that as short-term geopolitical positive factors are gradually digested, global risk assets are entering a cautious wait-and-see mode, and the correlation between traditional markets and crypto markets is strengthening again.
The real variable has returned to the same core node:
Jerome Powell and his monetary policy statements.
The market generally expects that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will become the most critical short-term pricing event window. If a hawkish signal is released, liquidity expectations will tighten, putting pressure on all "interest rate-sensitive assets," including stocks and crypto markets.
From Bitcoin's structure, after rising in April, it is now entering a typical consolidation phase:

Price remains within a range of oscillation

Position structure is overall light

Implied volatility continues to compress

These three features together essentially indicate one thing:
The market is waiting for a new trigger to initiate a direction, rather than continuing the trend.
This stage often has a common characteristic:
Surface calm, but internal funds have already begun to reprice divergently.
Focus on three key variables:
1) Whether the Fed's stance shifts to hawkish (determining liquidity direction)
2) Whether BTC breaks out of the volatility compression range (determining the direction choice)
3) Whether macro risk assets move in sync (determining if a trend cycle begins)
Currently, it is not a trending market, but the "eve of a trend."
The real opportunity has never been after the direction is clear, but when the market is still hesitating. Follow me to get an early understanding of the true transmission logic between macro and crypto.