Just finished reviewing the latest on-chain data and found that market expectations for the duration of the bear market are adjusting. This is a topic worth discussing in detail.

Looking back at history, the last full bear market was from November 2021 to November 2022, dropping from 69K to 15.5K, lasting 12 months with a 77% decline. Going further back, the 2017-2018 bear market also lasted 12 months, and the 2014-2015 one extended to 14 months. So, based on historical patterns, cryptocurrency bear markets typically last between 9 to 18 months, with a median around 12 months.

What is the current situation? Bitcoin surged to a high of 126K in October 2025, then started to retrace. By early February, the market had clearly entered a bear phase—not just a correction, but a true bear market. Data at that time showed the bullish index plummeting from 80 straight down to 0, and institutional ETF funds also began to flow out. Now, by the end of April, Bitcoin is oscillating around 77.5K, down more than 40% from the peak.

Interestingly, analysts' views on the duration of the bear market are diverging. CryptoQuant believes the first credible bottom window might appear in Q3 2026, with a bottom range between 56K-70K. Compass Point is more cautious, saying we are approaching the "final round," with a baseline bottom around 60K-68K. Some also argue that, due to increased institutional participation and improved ETF infrastructure, this bear market could be shorter than the 2022 one, possibly reaching the bottom in just 3 to 6 months.

From April data, we've already been in a bear market for over four months. If CryptoQuant's forecast is correct, hitting the bottom in Q3 means we still have 2-3 months to go. But the key difference this time is that the characteristics of the bear market are different—higher institutional involvement and easier ETF fund flows could trigger chain reactions, potentially speeding up the bottom formation process.

My personal observation is that this bear market might last between 9 to 12 months, meaning the bottom should appear by the end of this year or early next year at the latest. Of course, this assumes no black swan events in the macro environment. If such events occur, the duration could extend to 12-15 months.

For those still in the market now, the focus shouldn't be on guessing how long the bear will last but on managing risks well. Maintain a dollar-cost averaging investment strategy, accumulate core assets like BTC and ETH, and keep 20-40% in stablecoins as dry powder, waiting for the final bottom opportunity. History shows that investors who survive the bear market are often the ones who reap the biggest gains in the next bull run.