【Powell’s “Last Dance”: Policy Legacy and Market Risks】

1. Background: Countdown to Term End and Political Power Games

This week’s FOMC meeting is very likely to be the “final press conference” as Powell leads the Federal Reserve for 8 years. His chair term ends on May 15. The White House has already nominated a new chair (Kevin Warsh), and the market is highly focused on how this “power handover” could disrupt policy continuity.

2. Key Focus: Whether He Will Leave a “Hawkish Burden”

The market’s biggest worry is that Powell may intentionally strengthen the inflation narrative to leave his successor sufficient room to operate. The specific logic chain is as follows:

• Risk Retention: Emphasize “inflation stickiness exceeding expectations” and “upward geopolitical risks,” rather than locking in a rate-cut path.

• Tool Reservation: Keep options such as “rate hikes” or “long-term high interest rates” in the statement to avoid tying down dovish expectations too early.

• Market Impact: Once the wording leans hawkish, the market will immediately reprice rate-cut expectations, putting selling pressure on risk assets.

3. Key Variables: Oil Prices and Inflation

Recent escalation of Middle East conflicts has pushed energy prices higher, and the US CPI faces additional upward pressure. If the Federal Reserve explicitly mentions “energy inflation risks” in its statement, it will be interpreted as a strong hawkish signal—greatly increasing the probability of a stronger US dollar and a pullback in risk assets.$BTC $ETH $SOL