Tonight's Federal Reserve outlook becomes the key to the current situation. The last dance of old Powell depends on how he performs. Can Bitcoin and Ethereum still surge higher?

Based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the benchmark interest rate steady between 3.50% and 3.75%. This is also the third consecutive meeting with no change. It’s clear that policymakers are quite cautious about balancing inflation and economic growth—on one side, there’s a demand for risk aversion, and on the other, high interest rates are weighing down. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance tonight and the dollar index strengthens, the entire market could see some movement.

Considering the Fed’s short-term direction, the market has long consensus that interest rates will remain unchanged. Currently, it’s unlikely the Fed will open the door to rate hikes again. The macro environment still leans dovish, which is probably what the market is mainly focusing on. However, the crypto space is definitely waiting for either a good or bad outcome—though for the current market, this isn’t very important. After all, the ups and downs during trading aren’t just about tonight’s moves; the key is to watch how the trend develops moving forward.

Back to Bitcoin’s intraday situation: the current trading volume has only increased turnover, but overall trading volume hasn’t really expanded. It’s not a sign of new funds entering the market. Essentially, it’s just the short-term traders who previously took advantage of the easing tensions in the US-Iran situation to bottom-fish, now gradually cashing out and exiting.

There are no new positive catalysts supporting the market right now. The US stocks are weakening in tandem, and crypto is following suit with a pullback—completely understandable. Currently, Bitcoin isn’t showing independent strength. Ethereum’s earlier rally was weak, but its decline doesn’t seem to reveal weakness. Whether the market moves up or down next, patience is needed to see the core trend emerge!

The future depends on the Fed’s stance and guidance.

If they lean dovish, there’s potential for a rebound, targeting the 79,000–79,500 resistance level.

If they adopt a hawkish, tough tone, expect a quick drop, with support around 76,000–76,500.

If the overall tone is neutral or ambiguous, the market will likely stay in a narrow range between 77,000 and 78,500, continuing sideways consolidation. The trend shift after the Fed’s statement will be crucial—follow the intraday signals and act accordingly! #Strategy吸筹速度超挖矿两倍 $BTC $ETH