📊April 29 17:12 PM Market Open #技术面分析白银趋势看空 ｜#XRG MACD low position false golden cross + high position (For reference only)

(Conservative traders can enter at 73.20)

Current price: 72.97 Silver

⚠️ Key point: MACD on all timeframes is about to form a golden cross at low levels ≠ reversal, it’s a weak rebound in a downtrend, still following the bearish trend

1. Trend bearish logic (plain language)

1. MACD golden cross is a false signal to lure longs
Daily/4H/1H all show low positions converging for a golden cross, but the price is in a down channel with higher points constantly moving lower
Low position golden cross = bearish rebound gathering strength, not a bullish reversal, rebound is an opportunity to short

2. Structural resistance + lack of momentum
Above 73.6–74.0 is a dense area of strong resistance and trapped positions, rebound unable to break through
Below 72.5 is fragile support, a break below leads to a waterfall decline
Fed is hawkish early morning, dollar is strengthening, silver remains under long-term pressure

3. Moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, all rebounds face moving average resistance, the downtrend has not ended

2. Short entry points (enter short directly at current price 72.97)

Entry

Current price 72.95–73.00, short immediately
Add to short on rebound: 73.50–73.60
Leverage: 5–10x, total position ≤20%

Stop loss (strict defense)

• Short-term stop loss: 74.10 (breakthrough of resistance, invalidates all shorts)

• Ultimate stop loss: 74.50 (break below reversal, exit unconditionally)

Take profit, reduce positions in stages

• TP1: 72.40–72.20 (first support, reduce 50%)

• TP2: 71.50–71.30 (strong support, reduce 30%)

• TP3: 70.00–69.60 (trend target, remaining 20% for speculation)

3. Golden cross response rules

• 1H MACD official golden cross → only short on rebounds, do not reverse to long

• If price does not break 74.1 after golden cross → continue adding to short

• Volume stabilizes above 74.5 → immediately close short positions, trend turns bullish