Tonight, the true factor that determines the direction of the crypto market is not the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, but Powell’s late-night speech.

To synchronize: the interest rate is maintained at 3.75%, with no rate hike and no rate cut. The market has already priced in this outcome. The real variable lies in Powell’s words.

Two major risks: first, stubborn inflation—he may stress that high interest rates will stay higher for longer, suppressing risk assets. Second, if he steps down, the successor will most likely continue the hawkish line. A loosening cycle is basically out of the question, and the macro support for the crypto market will vanish as well.

Now look at the chart: existing capital can only barely prop things up, and there is no incremental inflow. Every rebound feels like a trap to lure in buyers, and the choppy range is steadily draining the bulls’ patience.

The trading idea is very clear: once this round of consolidation ends, the market will most likely break downwards. Be resolute in going short on rallies.

Summary: The decision isn’t the key—the speech is the fuse. Bearish pressure is pressing down from above, and there’s no capital down below to catch the selling. This is not a counterattack; it’s the bears building up for a downward move. Bears are the way forward.
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