#加密市场小幅下跌 The confrontation between the US and Iran has not eased + No hope for Fed rate cuts, BTC/ETH trading within a box range, approaching a trend reversal, altcoin pulses tempting more, risks still not eliminated

April 28–April 29: Core fundamentals review of the crypto market:
1. US-Iran situation: Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, diplomatic channels between the US and Iran are cut off, and negotiation expectations have cooled. Iran has taken a tough stance, refusing all dialogue and negotiations until the US lifts maritime blockade and sanctions; the US simultaneously intensifies financial sanctions, exerting maximum pressure. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has become normalized, US military deployment in the Middle East is heavy, Iran’s full-scale military readiness is at maximum, about 30% of global oil transportation is disrupted, oil prices remain high, and inflation expectations are rising.
2. Macro data: Based on the latest Federal Reserve interest rate data, the probability of maintaining rates in April is 100%, and the probability of rate cuts in June is very low. The high-interest-rate environment will persist long-term, continuously suppressing high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, firmly limiting the upward potential of mainstream coins.
Technical analysis:
BTC: The daily chart shows two consecutive mild bearish candles with increased volume, with the price oscillating around 77K. Yesterday’s close broke below the 14-day moving average, and overall it remains in a high-range box between 75K–79K, with diminishing rebound momentum. The short-term MA7 is turning downward, MA14 is flattening, shifting from support to resistance; MA30 (73.5K) continues upward, providing key support; MA90/180 remain downward, indicating the medium-term bearish trend persists, with rebounds suppressed by upper moving averages. Volume has failed to break out above the upper boundary of the box near 79K, showing weak buying support, while recent two-day declines have been mild but with increased volume, indicating strong selling pressure above, with diminishing bullish strength. The MACD has crossed below the zero line and diverges downward, with the negative histogram expanding, indicating weakening bullish momentum and ongoing bearish pressure. The short-term trend is to be decided. Future movement is expected to stay within the 75K–79K range, with narrowing window for trend choice. If volume breaks below 75K support, a second bottom risk is confirmed, and the market may re-enter a sideways-down channel, testing 70,000 or even previous lows. Currently at a critical point between bulls and bears, once a trend reversal signal triggers, volatility will amplify rapidly. Caution is essential at high levels.
ETH: The daily chart shows another small bearish candle, with the price breaking below short-term moving averages (MA7/14). Yesterday’s dip near MA30 found support and slightly rebounded. Currently, it faces resistance from the short-term MA double lines, with the overall trend still within a weak rebound in a medium-term downtrend. The bullish structure is weak, with heavy resistance from trapped positions above. The short-term MAs (MA7/14) have both crossed downward, turning into a death cross, shifting from support to key resistance during the rebound; MA30 (2250) continues upward, providing critical support; MA90/180 remain downward, indicating the medium-term bearish trend persists, with the rebound being a oversold correction and not a trend reversal. Volume during the rebound to 2400 has been shrinking, typical of a volume-contraction rally driven by follow-on funds, without major institutional entry; recent two-day declines show mild volume increase, indicating significant selling pressure above, with bulls unable to break through. MACD lines have widened after a death cross, with the negative histogram expanding, showing weakening bullish momentum but no strong bearish force yet. The key support is at 2250; if volume breaks below this, a short-term bearish trend could open, with critical support at 2050–2000. If BTC surges with volume, ETH can only follow passively, with heavy resistance between 2350–2400, making a breakout very difficult.
Altcoins: The market has shifted from “systematic decline” to a second stage of oscillating risk release. Mainstream BTC/ETH are in high-range box ranges, with risk-averse sentiment still present. The altcoin sector is no longer a broad decline but shows a “partial pulse, overall decline, emotional oscillation” new divergence pattern. It may seem promising but is actually full of traps; overall risk remains much higher than potential gains.
Today’s main assets are oscillating and rebounding, with some altcoins showing short-term pulses, but this is not capital inflow, rather a self-rescue by existing funds. Rebounds are mostly short-term (1–2 days), with no sustainability, and most tokens rebound less than one-third of their previous decline, typical of “false rebound traps.” Once the main assets fall again, these tokens are likely to break support again.
Funds are showing a “sector rotation illusion,” usually a window for escape. Previously declining second-tier AI/RWA tokens showed brief movements today, seeming to indicate sector rotation recovery, but in fact, funds are just escaping during the oscillation window, not new capital entering. Leading tokens continue to decline with low volume, second-tier tokens pulse briefly then fall back quickly, with no sustained rotation. Sector enthusiasm remains low; the so-called “recovery” is just a false signal created by funds.
Liquidity shows “polarization,” with a widening gap between top and bottom assets. Leading tokens maintain very low volume oscillations, while lower-tier tokens have lost liquidity entirely, with “zero trades, zero bids” states. Overall sector liquidity has not improved; instead, a “the strong stay weak, the weak get weaker” gap has widened. No asset is truly stable; bottom-fishing funds get trapped, and the tolerance for risk remains at a minimum.
Crypto market volatility is high, caution is advised for entering; these are personal views, not recommendations, for sharing only!