April 29 Gold Intraday Market Afternoon Poetry Fate View

As of Wednesday afternoon, international crude oil continues its strong upward trend, with fierce battles between bulls and bears, the price center of gravity keeps rising, showing a strong bullish bias and oscillating at high levels, with no clear turning signals, and the overall bullish trend remains solid.

Although the short-term market has not experienced a runaway rally, each correction quickly amplifies geopolitical risk premiums: tensions in the Middle East escalate, the Strait of Hormuz traffic sharply decreases, about 20% of global oil transportation is disrupted, and supply-side concerns continue to heat up, directly boosting oil prices' safe-haven attributes. Meanwhile, the US has imposed a long-term blockade on Iran, further increasing supply-side uncertainty, providing strong support for oil prices.

Tight supply and demand pattern, continuous decline in inventories: US API crude oil inventory data shows that last week crude oil inventories decreased by 1.79M barrels, marking two consecutive weeks of drawdowns, confirming the current tight supply and demand situation. Coupled with steady recovery in global crude oil demand, especially as the European and American summer peak oil season approaches, demand-side support gradually strengthens, and the supply-demand gap persists.

Oil-producing countries' policy disturbances, unstable supply expectations: UAE announced it will withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ mechanisms starting May 1. Although short-term production increases are limited, it exacerbates internal disagreements among oil producers, increasing future supply uncertainties, and market concerns about future supply gaps are further reinforced, supporting oil prices at high levels.