#加密市场小幅下跌 U.S.-Iran Standoff Unabated + No Hope of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts, BTC/ETH Range Trading, Approaching Breakout, Altcoin Pulses Inducing FOMO, Risks Still Unresolved

April 28–29 Core Fundamentals of the Crypto Market Summary:
1. U.S.-Iran Situation: Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, diplomatic channels between the U.S. and Iran are cut off, and negotiation expectations have cooled. Iran has issued tough statements, refusing all dialogue until the U.S. lifts maritime blockades and sanctions; the U.S. simultaneously intensifies financial sanctions, exerting maximum pressure. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has become routine, U.S. military deployments in the Middle East are heavy, Iran’s full-scale military readiness is at maximum, and 30% of global oil shipments are disrupted, pushing oil prices higher and raising inflation expectations.
2. Macro Data: Based on the latest Federal Reserve interest rate data, the probability of holding rates steady in April is 100%, with a very low chance of rate cuts in June. The high-interest-rate environment will persist long-term, continuously suppressing high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, firmly limiting the upside of mainstream coins.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The daily chart shows two consecutive mild bearish candles with increased volume, with prices oscillating around 77K. Yesterday’s close broke below the 14-day moving average, and overall, the price remains in a high-range range of 75K–79K, with a tug-of-war in the range. Rebound momentum is further weakening. The short-term MA7 is turning downward, while MA14 is flattening, shifting from support to resistance; MA30 (73.5K) continues upward, providing key support; MA90/180 remain downward, indicating the medium-term bearish trend persists, with rebounds suppressed by upper moving averages. Volume has failed to break out above the upper boundary of 79K in the previous range, showing weak buying support, while recent two-day declines have been mild but with increased volume, indicating strong selling pressure above and diminishing bullish strength. MACD has formed a death cross above zero and is diverging downward, with negative bars enlarging, signaling weakening bullish momentum and ongoing bearish pressure. The short-term trend is at a decision point. Future movement is likely to stay within the 75K–79K range, with narrowing window for trend choice. If volume breaks below 75K support, a second bottom is confirmed, and the market may re-enter a sideways downward channel, testing 70,000 or even previous lows. Currently at a critical juncture between bulls and bears, once a breakout signal triggers, volatility will amplify rapidly. Caution is advised at high levels.
ETH: The daily chart shows another small bearish candle, with prices breaking below short-term moving averages (MA7/14). Yesterday’s dip near MA30 found minor support and rebounded slightly. Currently, prices face resistance from the short-term MA double line, with the overall trend still within a weak rebound in a medium-term downtrend. The bullish structure is weak, with heavy overhead resistance from trapped positions. The short-term MAs (MA7/14) have both crossed downward, turning into a death cross, shifting from support to key resistance during the rebound; MA30 (2250) continues upward, providing critical support; MA90/180 remain downward, indicating the medium-term bearish trend persists, with the rebound being a oversold correction rather than a trend reversal. Volume during the rebound to 2400 has been shrinking, typical of a volume-contraction rally driven by follow-on funds, with no major institutional buying. Recent two-day declines show moderate volume increase, indicating significant overhead selling pressure and lack of bullish strength to break through. MACD’s two lines have formed a death cross and are widening, with negative bars enlarging, signaling weakening bullish momentum, though bears have yet to gain full strength. Future focus should be on the 2250 support; a volume-break below could open a short-term bearish trend, with key support at 2050–2000. If BTC surges with volume, ETH can only follow passively, with heavy resistance at 2350–2400, making a breakout difficult.
Altcoins: The market has shifted from “systematic sell-off” into a second phase of range-bound risk release. Mainstream BTC/ETH are in high-range tug-of-war, with risk-averse sentiment persisting. The altcoin sector is no longer in a broad decline but shows a new pattern of “local pulses, overall decline, emotional oscillation,” creating a seemingly promising but actually trap-filled environment. Overall risk remains much higher than potential gains.

Today’s main assets show a rebound, with some altcoins experiencing short-term pulses, but this is not capital inflow; rather, it’s a self-rescue by existing holders. Rebounds are mostly short-term (1–2 days), with no sustainability, and most tokens rebound less than one-third of their previous declines, typical of “faked-out rebounds.” Once the main assets fall again, these tokens are likely to break support again.

Funds are exhibiting a “sector rotation illusion,” often a sign of an exit window. Previously beaten-down second-tier AI/RWA tokens showed brief movements today, seeming to indicate sector rotation recovery, but in reality, funds are just fleeing during the oscillation window, not new capital entering. Leading tokens continue to decline in low volume, second-tier tokens pulse briefly then fall back quickly, with no sustained rotation. Sector enthusiasm remains low; the so-called “recovery” is just a false signal created by capital.

Liquidity shows “polarization,” with a widening gap between top and bottom assets. Top-tier leaders maintain extremely low-volume oscillations, while lower-tier tokens have lost liquidity entirely, with “zero trades, zero bids” states. Overall sector liquidity has not improved; instead, a “the strong stay weak, the weak get weaker” gap has widened. No asset can truly stabilize; bottom-fishing capital gets trapped, and risk tolerance remains at a low point.

Crypto market volatility is high, caution is advised for entering; these are personal views, not recommendations, for sharing only!