If no one supports my lofty ambition, I’ll walk alone through the snow to the mountaintop! Hello everyone, I’m Ultraman. Today is Wednesday—once again, a day when the news flow is packed and it’s time for big mouthfuls of meat. Let’s talk about the current pace!

On the news front, the Iran–US talks provide the market with some bullish support. Iran has amended the bill, but the outcome is uncertain and there are many unknown factors; overall, it likely won’t bring the market too strong a rebound expectation.

As for the U.S., as always, they’re being stubborn and hardline: they ban individuals and entities in their country from paying the transit toll through the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. Trump also instructed his assistants to prepare for a long-term blockade against Iran. This move is meant to hit Iran’s fiscal revenue—essentially forcing Iran to make concessions on nuclear issues. But getting Iran to concede is still very difficult. The main thing is what happens over these next couple of days. In the short term, it should still be a game of maneuvering; the market generally believes the two sides won’t end up fighting. The Iran–US news should gradually be toned down by the market. The focus remains on today’s economic data.

Today, two key figures at the Federal Reserve will be gradually on the scene. In the evening at 10:00, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will advance a vote on Jerome Powell’s nomination as Fed Chair. If it passes, that basically confirms it—meaning he will officially take the role. Personally, I think it will most likely pass; it’ll just be a formality.

Next, at 2:00 a.m., the Fed’s decision. The market broadly believes the Fed will keep its stance unchanged this time, and for the market this is a short-term mild negative. The price action might see a bit of movement in the short term, but it won’t matter too much. The main highlight is still Powell’s press conference at 2:30—his final performance in his career. Will he pave the way for his successor with strongly hawkish remarks, or will he remain the same conservative style as always? We’ll see Powell’s farewell tonight; it should have a relatively big impact on the market. Perhaps it will also transmit new Fed signals—who knows. Stay tuned. We’ll also livestream across the whole network in the evening, and we’ll go through this last journey with Old Powell together. And honestly, we still have to thank Old Powell—during his tenure, we made a lot of big meat from rate hikes and cuts based on his forward-looking data and conservative commentary. His farewell can be said to be the end of an era.

As for the next Fed Chair, Waller is rumored to rewrite the Fed’s forward guidance, and the impact on the market could be very large. As for what exactly the situation will be and whether financial markets will be easier to trade—both are unknown. What we can do is provide objective analysis and give everyone a full, all-around breakdown. Once he comes in, we’ll first explore along his lane and then look for his track.

Coming back to the current market: last night’s trend was also consistent with the predicted rhythm. After breaking below 77,000, it drifted lower all the way down. On the daily timeframe, it continues the downward trend and closed with a medium-sized bearish candle, rewriting the earlier upward rising channel—turning the pattern into a “correction and turning bearish” mode. Right now, on the short-term level, it’s a case of stepping back every now and then, with the 4-hour lower band being tested first before a small rebound. The Bollinger Bands indicator has openings up and down. The MA moving average indicators—15 and 30-day—are curling downward and suppressing in a stepwise decline rhythm. On the daily timeframe, the MACD shows the two lines sticking together and then curling over, turning into a death cross downward. The KDJ’s three lines are dispersing. The 5-day moving average is capping the price above the K-line. The upper Bollinger Band pressure is obvious. All indicators have turned and are heading downward overall—sentiment is still firmly in a bearish setup.

At the morning open, price slightly continued lower and is currently around the 77,100 area. For resistance above, first pay attention to the prior highs at 776–883. As price approaches here, don’t be timid—be cautious and boldly assess. I expect today will mainly be choppy/sideways throughout the day. Don’t focus on a one-way breakout continuation. Targets to watch step by step are the 762–755–743 region.

For Ethereum: these days the movement hasn’t been very large. It’s been tugging back and forth within a range—up and down. On the daily timeframe, the midline resistance is in the 2330–2340 area. Since it hasn’t effectively held above 2330, we won’t look for too big of a reversal. Throughout the day, it will mainly continue to move in tandem with BTC for shorts. Intraday, you can directly consider shorting around the 2310–2320 area and look for a pullback toward 2265–2235.

Finally, let’s talk about gold. These past few days, it has kept oscillating. On the news front, the positive sentiment has faded. Then, the uncertainty from the Fed leadership change has spread—leading to a continued drop over these days. That also matches our adjustment rhythm. Looking today, on the daily timeframe the streak of consecutive down days is still continuing. It touches the lower band, where there’s some support. But the Bollinger Bands have opened up, and all indicators are curling downward—especially the MACD, which has a strong downward curling look. Sentiment is still bearish. On the short term, refer to the 4-hour resistance at 4635–4640 for short positions, and look for a drop toward 4555–4470.

Alright, that’s it for today. For the overall backdrop, everyone, pay attention to three points—these are also what I mentioned in my live broadcast yesterday: the U.S. stock market’s stage top, the rise-and-fall rhythm around the Fed decision, and the impact of past Fed leadership changes. All three points are in a major bearish backdrop. From the 775–785 area, you can participate in the swing trade—long-term short! $BTC $ETH