I. Geopolitics: Hormuz Deadlock Suppresses Risk Appetite

Latest Developments

· Iran's tough stance: Revolutionary Guards claim "absolute control over the strait," the US bans its citizens/companies from paying tolls to Iran, escalating confrontation.
· Peace plan unresolved: Iran expects to submit a revised peace proposal, but the US insists on first discussing nuclear issues, with opposing stances leading to deadlock.
· Market expectations: UK Kalshi prediction market shows a 59.5% chance of the strait returning to normal operation before May 15. This expectation has been partially priced in; if it fails, risk premiums will rise again.

Impact on BTC/ETH

· Ongoing geopolitical conflict continues to suppress risk assets; any breakthrough in negotiations may cause short-term rallies (compression of premiums), but if talks break down, prices will fall again.
· Current influence weight: Medium-term bearish, with frequent short-term disturbances.

---

II. Economic Policy: FOMC "Perfect Storm" Approaching

Key event at 2:00 AM on April 30 (Beijing Time)

· Interest rate decision: Market fully prices in no change, maintaining 3.50%-3.75%.
· Powell's final press conference: Setting the tone before stepping down, with dovish or hawkish language dominating the next two months' direction.

Two Scenario Analyses

Scenario Probability Powell's Signal BTC Reaction ETH Reaction
Dovish 40% Confirming 1-2 more rate cuts this year, inflation under control Testing 78,500-79,500 Rebound to 2,350-2,370
Hawkish 60% Emphasizing oil prices pushing up re-inflation, maintaining high rates longer Drop toward 75,000-74,000 Below 2,250, possibly down to 2,200

Historical Pattern

In the past 9 FOMC meetings, Bitcoin declined within 24 hours after 8 of them, solidifying the "sell the news" pattern.

Trading Warning: Avoid holding large directional positions throughout today before the decision; wait for Powell's speech to confirm the right side before entering.

---

III. Technical Indicators: Double Top and Triple Top Suppression

BTC (Bitcoin)

Cycle Status Key Levels
4-hour MACD death cross confirmed, price breaks below upward trendline, EMA50 (~76,900-77,000) acts as dynamic resistance Support: 75,000 / 74,000-74,500 / 73,000-73,900
Daily No strength in rebound, bearish dominance Resistance: 78,500-79,500

Conclusion: Medium-term bearish structure forming, rebound opportunities to short.

ETH (Ethereum)

Cycle Status Key Levels
1-hour Price below MA7/18/60, MACD below zero line, RSI=32.65 (near oversold) Support: 2,280 / 2,260 / 2,250
4-hour MACD death cross, price under moving averages Resistance: 2,310-2,330
Daily Confirmed triple top (failed four attempts at 2,400), 100-day moving average (2,350-2,370) turns into resistance Strong resistance: 2,400-2,440

Conclusion: ETH's technical outlook is weaker than BTC; 2,400 has become a "death ceiling," any rebound to 2,310-2,330 is a short entry opportunity.

---

IV. On-Chain Data and Whale Movements

BTC: Smart Money "Spot Accumulation + Futures Shorting"

· Accumulation: Whale address bc1q8w bought 300 BTC (USD 23.03 million) after two years; Strategy increased holdings by 3,273 BTC (USD 255 million), total holdings account for 3.9% of supply.
· Outflows: After 9 consecutive days of inflows into spot ETFs, net outflow of USD 263 million yesterday.
· Strategy: Large funds hedge by "buying spot, shorting futures," causing spot rebound to be weak and futures shorts to remain dominant.

ETH: Whale Long-Short Divergence

· Shorts: Whales using 25x leverage to long 4,500 ETH faced liquidations totaling USD 4.91 million, liquidation price around USD 2,250; Galaxy Digital-related addresses transferred 21,369 ETH (~USD 49.3 million) to exchanges, indicating selling.
· Longs: Addresses like 0xE5eB and others withdrew 6,361 ETH (~USD 15 million) from exchanges; Bitmine Immersion bought USD 234 million worth of ETH last week.
· Conclusion: ETH market structure is fragile, with large funds betting on both sides; USD 2,250-2,260 is a high-risk zone for long liquidations.

---

V. Liquidation Data: USD 2.15 Billion Long Liquidation Zone Below USD 2,150

ETH Liquidation Map (Coinglass)

· If below USD 2,150: Over USD 2.5 billion in leveraged longs face concentrated liquidations, triggering a chain reaction down to USD 2,000-2,050.
· Short-term key zone: USD 2,250-2,260 as a warning line for long liquidations; USD 2,200-2,250 as an acceleration zone.
· Upside stop-loss triggers: USD 2,430-2,460 (dense short stop-loss area).

BTC Liquidation Map

· Upside short stop-loss peak: USD 81,349 with about USD 834 million in shorts; breaking above accelerates upward.
· Downside long liquidation zone: USD 74,000-75,000.

---

VI. ETH/BTC Exchange Rate: Funds Flow from ETH to BTC Continues

· Current ETH/BTC rate around 0.0298-0.0300, breaking below key support at 0.032.
· This indicates ETH underperforms BTC in the overall market; shorting ETH/BTC spread remains an arbitrage strategy.

---

🚨 Regarding your current long position at 2290【Position Management Plan】

You opened a long at 2290 yesterday, now around 2282, with a small unrealized loss. Based on all the above analysis, here are three recommended paths:

Option A: Hold and wait for FOMC (Moderate risk)

· Logic: If Powell signals dovishness, ETH may rebound to 2,350-2,370, turning your long profitable.
· Condition: Set a hard stop-loss at 2,240 (exit unconditionally if broken to avoid cascade).
· Position management: Do not add; maintain current position.

Option B: Reduce and hedge with short (Risk hedging)

· Action: Close half of the long at 2,280-2,290, and open an equal short at 2,290-2,300.
· Effect: Hedge position, locking in small losses regardless of market direction. After FOMC, close the wrong side and add to the correct side.

Option C: Exit entirely and wait for confirmation on the right side (Most conservative)

· Action: Close at current (~2282), minimizing loss.
· Follow-up: After FOMC, re-enter based on "can hold above 2,380" or "break below 2,200."
· Advantage: Completely avoid tonight's macro uncertainty, preserve capital for clearer signals.