Recently, I've seen many people equate "the supply of stablecoins has increased / ETFs are bringing in money" directly with "a bull market is coming," and I can't help but roll my eyes... Correlation does not equal causation. Frankly, more stablecoins might just mean people are parking their money on the chain waiting for opportunities, or it could be inventory for market making, arbitrage, or cross-chain transfers; the off-exchange funds in ETFs are more like another water pipe, when you turn it on and where it flows to, it doesn't necessarily immediately transmit to the chain you're watching.

Why can I stay calm? It's a habit: every time I feel like impulsively placing an order, I first run through the on-chain routing, check the actual transaction depth and slippage, and conveniently compare whether the funds are "coming in" or "moving back and forth." Often, what you think is an increase is actually just a change of pockets.

By the way, the NFT royalty water wars are quite similar: everyone says it's for creators / for liquidity, but in the end, whoever can arbitrage better wins... Anyway, I prefer to speak with data first, and keep emotions to myself to avoid paying tuition.