AI frenzy vs. geopolitical inflation tug-of-war: US stocks hit new highs, and BTC trades in a high-range range—Fed meeting in the spotlight!

US stocks continued their strength this week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both refreshed record highs (the S&P is around 7,170 points, Nasdaq is nearly 24.9k), with weekly gains of about 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively, while the Dow dipped slightly by 0.4%. Tech and AI stocks again took the lead. Intel’s blowout earnings drove a surge in semiconductors, and market risk appetite warmed up. However, the Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, adding volatility.
Oil prices and commodities: geopolitical risk takes the lead
Brent crude oil rose above $100 at one point due to tensions in the Hormuz Strait, with a clear increase this week. That boosted energy stocks but also intensified inflation concerns. Safe-haven assets such as gold oscillated as investors celebrated new highs while worrying about a “higher for longer” interest-rate environment.
The big focus this week: Super Earnings Week + the Fed meeting
This is the busiest week of the Q1 earnings season. More than 180 S&P 500 companies will release their results. Within the Magnificent 7, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft (after Wednesday’s close), as well as Apple (after Thursday’s close) will take the stage in sequence. Investors are most concerned about whether AI capital expenditures can stay robust and whether earnings can support today’s elevated valuations.
Economic data is also packed:
• Wednesday: durable goods orders, existing home sales, Fed rate decision
• Thursday: Q1 GDP initial estimate, PCE inflation (the Fed’s favorite gauge), employment cost index
• Others: consumer confidence, housing-market data, and more
The Fed’s 4/29 meeting is almost universally expected to keep rates unchanged, at 3.5%-3.75%. The market will focus on Powell’s press conference: with oil prices lifting inflation, will he signal a more hawkish stance? Will the dot plot suggest that there will be only one rate cut this year? This could be Powell’s final time chairing, and attention is also on leadership changes afterward.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin trades in a high-range swing
BTC fluctuated around $76,000-$78,000. It followed shifts in risk sentiment, but overall it still remains in a bullish pattern.
If AI earnings come in above expectations and US stocks can push higher again—great. But if oil prices and the Fed turn hawkish, some short-term volatility is unavoidable.
This week is the key battleground of “celebrating new highs vs. facing reality checks”! Investors should stay alert—hold core AI positions for now—but set stop-loss levels and diversify risk.
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