This Thursday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision is very likely to be Powell’s last appearance as Chair. Historically, whenever the market has shifted from Yellen to Powell, it has fallen. Now it’s another “leadership change window,” which is likely to trigger a short-term pullback—this could be an opportunity to short.

With rates staying unchanged essentially settled, the key is what Powell says. He will most likely take a “dovish” stance, calming the market so that the transition can be smooth and paving the way for his successor, Waller. But after the past 9 policy meetings, BTC has fallen 8 times—so in the short term, there may be a “good news already priced in” pullback. Focus on the 77,000–79,000 area: if he unexpectedly turns “hawkish,” it could drop to 75,000.

Before the meeting, BTC will most likely trade in a weak range. But in the long run, the real positive is Waller taking office in May. He supports incorporating digital assets into the financial system, and future policy may also consider liquidity in the crypto market. So, in the short term, you can look to short the pullback.
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