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Recently, I saw a bunch of screenshots of "whale addresses entering the market," and immediately someone said to follow along.
To put it simply, before copying a trade, ask first: Are they building a position or hedging?
Anyone who has done small pool market making understands that many large transactions are just risk spreading—buying spot, while on the other side, they might be opening a short on a different platform;
The on-chain transaction you see is only half the picture, the other half is somewhere you can't see.
What I am more interested in now is: during the same period, is the capital continuously flowing into a certain protocol, or is it moving around looking for lower fees and faster confirmation (recently, the atmosphere of Layer 2 arguing over TPS/fees/subsidies creates the illusion that "whales are moving").
Anyway, I don't chase "a certain address bought," I prefer to wait until the structure is clear: whether the position is getting thicker and thicker, or if it's a series of inflows and outflows hedging against each other.
Let's start with this, to avoid more "impermanent loss disguised as gains."