$ASML may be preparing to enter the hybrid bonding market

Professor Joo Seung-hwan of Inha University, who spoke at the conference "Beyond HBM: Core Advanced Packaging Technologies: From Next-Generation Substrates to Modules," reached the conclusion based on $ASML patent analysis
"Based on an analysis of patents filed by ASML, it appears that they intend to launch a product by applying TwinScan technology, a core component of lithography equipment, to a W2W hybrid bonder."
TwinScan already uses two wafer stages inside one system, allowing one wafer to go through exposure while the next is loaded, aligned, and matched. That architecture could potentially be adapted to W2W hybrid bonding, where two wafers are directly bonded with extremely high precision
$ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet also hinted at this direction during the company’s Q1 earnings call, saying, "In the advanced packaging sector, we will support our customers' 3D integration, including hybrid bonding processes, with ASML's lithography technology," and added, "While the adoption rate of hybrid bonding in the front-end process is still low, we are discussing specifically how we can help our customers when the market opens up."
Professor Joo also noted that "There have been persistent rumors that $ASML is entering the hybrid bonding equipment market," but he framed the main issue clearly: "However, the key question is whether ASML, which has primarily manufactured ultra-high-priced lithography equipment, can launch competitive equipment in the packaging equipment market, where products need to be relatively cheaper."
ASML’s High-NA EUV tools cost around €350 million, while hybrid bonders are closer to 4 to 5 billion won, a very different pricing environment
The article also argues that Korean equipment makers may need to prepare for the larger W2W opportunity, not just the D2W market tied to HBM. Companies like Semes, Hanwha Semitech, and Hanmi Semiconductor have been more focused on D2W hybrid bonding, but D2W was only about 4.5% of the hybrid bonding market last year, or roughly $275 million out of a market above $6 billion
"When looking at the overall hybrid bonding market, the share occupied by D2W is very small," adding that "Domestic companies also need to actively seek entry into the W2W market, which is larger in scale and allows them to lead the market."