This week’s crypto market faces multiple pressures.

**Market situation:** Bitcoin is ranging in the $76,500–$77.3k zone. After hitting $79.4k yesterday, it fell back by nearly 3,000 points, and the rebound lacks strength. Ethereum has already broken below $2,300, and its trend is even weaker. For any short-term rebound, be especially wary of “buy-the-rumor” setups designed to lure longs. The overall trend is bearish—keep risk tightly controlled, and it’s not advisable to chase longs.

**Core event risk:** Early Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will release its April FOMC decision. Historical data shows that after the past 5 meetings, Bitcoin’s downside has ranged from 10% to 30%. With inflation currently running hot and the Fed repeatedly sounding hawkish, expectations for tighter global liquidity are rising. If this meeting tilts hawkish, it will directly suppress risk assets.

**Technical deterioration:** Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a rebound on low volume. On the daily chart, a bearish engulfing pattern is emerging. The 4-hour upward trendline has already been broken. Key support sits at $76k; if it is lost, it could trigger technical selling. Ethereum’s 4-hour structure has also broken down, forming a rounded top, with bears clearly in control.

**Capital and peripheral pressures:** There are signs that major capital is flowing out (one institution reduced its Bitcoin holdings by about $1.3 billion this month). After consecutive gains in US stocks, earnings are being released in bulk—good news has been largely exhausted, and risk is increasing. Bitcoin has risen more than 30% from its lows, and the intention to realize profits is strengthening.

**Summary:** With technical, policy, and capital pressures stacking up, the market faces a higher risk of downside this week. It’s recommended to hold positions cautiously and set strict stop-losses. $BTC $GT $ETH