In the past couple of days, I’ve seen a bunch of people staring at whale addresses, trying to follow along… I usually start by asking myself one thing: are they building a position, or are they hedging / doing arbitrage (trading the price difference)? Buying from the same address doesn’t necessarily mean they’re bullish. It could be that they’re entering spot, that the perp side is sitting short or idle, or that they’re balancing across exchanges. In plain terms, you only see half of what they’re doing, and it’s easy to get “educated” by net exposure.

I’m really just someone who loves spreadsheets, so I’m used to jotting down a few key points: where this money came from (a CEX withdrawal or an on-chain loan), whether they immediately move into derivatives / lending afterward, and—most importantly—whether the exit liquidity is sufficient. Recently, retail traders have also been complaining about validator income and MEV making ordering feel unfair, and I really relate… On-chain, that so-called “smart money” sometimes just consumes structure and priority—meaning it doesn’t necessarily reflect a directional judgment. Either way, I’d rather move a bit slower and get things clear before I take action.