April 28 Midday Analysis

Currently, geopolitical tensions are in a deadlock: the US-Iran negotiations have completely stalled, Iran has refused direct talks with the US twice in a row, and the core differences in ceasefire demands between both sides cannot be reconciled. Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainty continues to heat up, and market risk-aversion sentiment keeps getting pulled back and forth.
On-chain support: The share of holdings by long-term BTC holders continues to rise. The sharp plunge in the short term has not triggered large-scale selling by long-term holders. Exchange circulating supply remains at a low level, and downside selling pressure at the bottom has been significantly released. For Ethereum derivatives, leveraged capital continues to be cleared; open interest has fallen markedly, and market risk has been effectively released.

Key macro event: The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on April 28-29 is approaching. CME data shows the probability that interest rates remain unchanged is as high as 99%. This is also the last rate decision meeting during Powell’s tenure. Market expectations for rate cuts this year have already narrowed significantly, and ahead of the meeting, market sentiment is extremely cautious. Major coins are maintaining narrow-range consolidation while waiting for a breakthrough in direction.
Absolutely do not blindly go all-in at the current price. Only after the pullback to the 76000-76500 range stabilizes, consider building positions in light-sized batches. Set a stop loss at 75500, with targets at 77500-78200#BTC #ETH #BTC走势分析