April 28 Gold Analysis: Weakness Continues, Trend Remains Bearish

1. Technical Aspect: Bearish Pattern Established, Moving Averages Continue to Suppress

Gold is currently in a weak correction phase after a decline, with overall bearish sentiment unchanged. The morning session continued with a sideways and slightly weak rhythm, focusing on light short positions following the trend. Patience is advised to wait for key level signals to confirm, avoiding frequent trades within the range that are ineffective.
On the 4-hour chart, the 5/10/20 moving averages form a typical death cross downward structure, with the price remaining under the three moving averages. The moving average system’s suppression remains effective throughout, clearly indicating a bearish trend. Short-term, an effective reversal is unlikely, with only minor rebounds providing some correction space.

2. Fundamental Aspect: Geopolitical Conflicts Weigh on Gold, High-Interest Rate Expectations Apply Pressure

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has been stalemated for nearly two months. The risk of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persists. While this seems to favor safe-haven assets, it actually pushes up international oil prices and worsens global inflation concerns. Market demand for safe-haven assets is overshadowed by inflation anxiety, which in turn reinforces the Federal Reserve’s expectation to maintain high interest rates.
Currently, the market no longer solely bets on gold’s safe-haven property. The conflict’s transmission chain—“raising oil prices → increasing inflation → delaying rate cuts”—continues to suppress gold prices, forming the core fundamental logic behind recent gold weakness.

Trading Suggestions
Entry Point: Short in the 4690-4715 range
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