BTC is currently oscillating within a narrow range of 76,500–79,000. The technical chart shows a pattern similar to a "descending wedge," with the 77,485 level forming horizontal support, and the 78,000–79,000 zone serving as a key resistance area. Bulls need to first reclaim the 80,000 low region and turn resistance into support, then also need to break above and close above 82,000 to open up a more sustained bullish space; conversely, if 76,500 is lost, the downside targets will sequentially point to 74,800 and even 73,200. Since April, BTC has gained approximately 16%, potentially achieving its first double-digit monthly increase since May 2025.

Ethereum (ETH):

ETH's technical outlook is weaker, with the price having broken below the mid-line of the daily ascending channel, currently around 2,300. The 2,264 level is a key support; if broken, the next targets are the lower channel boundary at 2,070, with additional horizontal supports at 2,001 and 1,920 below. On the upside, 2,370 is a critical resistance that needs to be continuously reclaimed to reverse the bearish structure. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is also weakening, having broken below the key support at 0.032 BTC, indicating that relative strength is diminishing.

In addition to technical factors, ETH's weakness is also reflected in the following aspects:

Capital preference shift: BTC market share is rising, while ETH market share is declining, indicating funds are moving from altcoins to Bitcoin.
Regulatory developments: The US SEC and CFTC jointly released positive signals at the Bitcoin 2026 conference, with both agencies working together to clarify token classification frameworks, encouraging crypto businesses to stay and develop within the US. In the long term, this is beneficial for industry standardization, but in the short term, it is unlikely to directly reverse ETH's relative weakness.

---

Overall, the current crypto market is in a tug-of-war between "macro uncertainty and institutional accumulation on dips." In the short term, geopolitical risks and the upcoming Federal Reserve decision are the main suppressive forces; however, continuous institutional capital inflows provide structural support at the bottom. From a technical perspective, whether BTC can hold the 76,500 support and break through 80,000 will be key indicators for short-term direction; for ETH, attention should be paid to the 2,264 support level—if broken, further downside could open. In the absence of clear catalysts, the market is likely to continue high volatility and narrow-range oscillations.