ETH is currently in a daily bullish trend but support is very weak + 4-hour MACD bearish divergence + Bollinger Bands narrowing indicating a reversal is imminent + volume decline + underperforming BTC + Fear & Greed Index dropping to 33 + hacker selling ETH to switch to BTC:

Bullish scenario (probability about 30–35%): Daily SAR bullish trend + 4-hour SAR bullish trend + BitMine continuously increasing large holdings (5.07 million ETH, 70% staked) + DeFi United rescue operation (132k ETH) + Cryptopunks floor price surpassing 30 ETH + Bollinger Bands narrowing indicating a bullish reversal. If volume breaks above $2,361–$2,375 and stabilizes above $2,400–$2,423 (key resistance), a short-term bullish reversal can be confirmed, targeting $2,450–$2,465 → $2,500+ [X][X]

Bearish scenario (probability about 65–70%): 4-hour MACD bearish divergence + volume decline + underperforming BTC + daily DIF momentum weakening + KDJ J-value low + repeated rejection at $2,400–$2,423 key resistance + Kelp DAO hacker selling ETH to switch to BTC + Fear & Greed Index dropping to 33 + Bollinger Bands narrowing indicating a bearish reversal. If a pullback breaks below $2,270–$2,280 (trendline support), the downside targets are $2,250–$2,260 → $2,200–$2,205 → $2,140 → $2,000 [X][X][X]

ETH bearish probability is significantly higher than yesterday (65–70% vs 60–65%), mainly because the Fear & Greed Index dropped from 47 to 33 (fear zone) + volume decline deepening + 4-hour MACD bearish divergence confirmed + hacker selling ETH to switch to BTC + underperformance of BTC intensifying.

Operational suggestions:

$2,283–$2,292 is immediate short-term support: holding this level without breaking the rising trendline can maintain a wait-and-see stance
$2,270–$2,280 is the key trendline defense: a break below this confirms trendline breakdown, shifting to a bearish outlook, with downside targets $2,250–$2,260 → $2,200–$2,205
$2,361–$2,375 is the short-term resistance observation zone: volume breakout above this is the first step to strengthen the trend, then challenge the key resistance at $2,400–$2,423
Breakthrough of $2,400–$2,423 is needed to confirm a short-term bullish reversal: before that, long positions have poor risk-reward
Bollinger Bands narrowing indicating a reversal is imminent: the direction is uncertain, but volume decline + Fear & Greed Index at 33 suggest a higher probability of a bearish reversal. After reversal, volatility may be large, so light positions are recommended
4-hour SAR at $2,285 can be used as a trailing stop reference for longs: a break below this may reverse the 4-hour bullish trend
Daily SAR at $2,266 (the lowest price today) can be used as a daily trailing stop reference for longs: a break below this may reverse the daily bullish trend
BitMine’s increased holdings are the biggest bullish support: 5.07 million ETH (70% staked) + continuous buying, making a pullback potentially limited
Hacker selling ETH to switch to BTC is the biggest bearish pressure: 75.7k ETH exchanged for BTC via THORChain, directly increasing ETH selling pressure + BTC buying, which may cause ETH/BTC rate to weaken further