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Recently, I've been looking at options again, and the more I look, the more it feels like disassembling an engine...
Buyers are actually racing against time; it's not enough to just be right about the direction, it has to move fast enough, or else that little bit of time value gets worn away every day;
Sellers, on the other hand, profit from the "you didn't explode on time" part, and even if the market is stagnant or only slightly moving, they can collect rent, but when faced with a sudden spike like a needle piercing through, the heartbeat really can't be underestimated.
These days, everyone talks about rate cut expectations, the US dollar index rising and falling with risk assets, basically emotional pricing becoming more dominant;
When volatility kicks in, the time value becomes ridiculously expensive, and the "pure anxiety fee" in the money buyers pay increases;
Sellers look comfortable but also more like they're picking up the fuse of a bomb.
Now, I care more about whether you're betting on the direction or betting on "how long it will take to happen"—this difference is pretty crucial...
What do you guys think?