Wednesday’s market once again staged a “roller coaster” rally. Just after hearing the news of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, market optimism erupted. The U.S. panic index VIX fell 18% on the spot, and crude oil also dropped by more than 12%. Stocks in Europe and the U.S. rose across the board. But before 24 hours had passed, Iran shut down oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz directly, citing Israel’s attack on Lebanon, and the negotiations once again fell into a deadlock. This kind of back-and-forth really leaves people a bit baffled.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf publicly accused the U.S. of violating three key terms in the negotiation framework on the first day of the ceasefire. He claimed that “any bilateral ceasefire or negotiations are unreasonable under these circumstances.” According to a report by The New York Times, what the U.S. put forward was actually a “15-point proposal,” not the “10-point framework” initially proposed by Iran, and the differences between the two documents are substantial. The U.S.’s core demands include limiting Iran’s ballistic missiles and stopping uranium enrichment. White House spokesperson Leavitt said bluntly that the idea that Trump would accept Iran’s “wish list” is simply out of this world.

Despite the tense geopolitical situation, market expectations for rate cuts have actually been heating up. Traders began betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates within the year. The swap market shows that the chance of a rate cut by the end of the year jumped from nearly zero at the beginning of this week to 60%. The Fed’s March meeting minutes also revealed that most officials believe that if rising oil prices continue to impact employment and consumption, easing policies may be necessary, with consensus expecting one rate cut this year.

As for the stock market, the Dow rose 2.85%, the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.8%. Europe was not far behind—Germany’s DAX rose 5.06%, France’s CAC rose 4.49%, and the UK’s FTSE rose 2.51%. Chip stocks were especially strong: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.34%, Teradyne rose 11.8%, and Intel rose 11.42%. This rebound really was quite fierce.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin is currently at 76.75K, down 1.60% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is at 2.28K, down 2.92% over the past 24 hours. Gold rose 0.38% to $4,819.4 per ounce, and the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.52% to 98.99. It looks like the market is digesting these developments, waiting for the next steps in policy and geopolitical developments.

What’s interesting is that Trump also threatened to impose a 50% tariff on any country that supplies weapons to Iran, while at the same time saying the U.S. will work closely with Iran. This “talk while fighting” playbook has already become the norm in international politics right now. The first round of talks is scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad, with Vice President Vance, special envoy Wittekov, and Kushner leading the delegation. Over the next few days, there should still be plenty to watch.