The U.S. stock market has been a bit interesting lately. I just saw the U.S. employment data: non-farm payrolls increased by 130k in January, the largest gain since April last year, directly exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, and hourly wages rose 0.4% month over month. It looks like after a period of weakness, the labor market is starting to show some resilience.

But there’s an interesting twist here: the increase in non-farm payroll jobs in 2025 was revised significantly downward, from an average of 49k per month to only 15k. Analysts believe it could be due to seasonal factors. Industries such as retail and courier services hired fewer holiday workers last year, so the scale of layoffs in January was correspondingly smaller.

After the data came out, traders began adjusting their expectations for interest-rate cuts—shifting from betting on a June cut to a July cut. But the overall market still isn’t quite sure. On one hand, U.S.-Iran talks are set to enter a second round. On the other hand, Trump has threatened to send a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, and there are also rumors that he is considering withdrawing from the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. All of these add plenty of variables to the market.

Looking at how U.S. stocks performed, the three major indexes surged and then retreated yesterday. The Dow fell 0.13%, ending the streak of three straight trading days of record highs; the S&P 500 was basically flat; and the Nasdaq fell 0.16%. Tech stocks were mixed. Microsoft and Google saw more noticeable declines, falling 2.15% and 2.39%, respectively, but Micron Technology rose 9.94%.

Cryptocurrencies are also adjusting. Bitcoin fell 1.63% over the past 24 hours and is now trading at $76,770. Ethereum fell 3.14% to $2,270. In the bond market, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to about 4.17%. In the foreign-exchange market, the U.S. dollar index inched up 0.02% to 96.90, and the U.S. dollar to Japanese yen fell 0.72%. This trend is still worth paying attention to for anyone looking to exchange yen, because the cost to exchange 20,000 yen can vary as well.

Overall, the market is in a fairly conflicted state. On one side, resilience in the labor market is providing support; on the other, uncertainty around geopolitics and trade policy is weighing on sentiment. In the short term, there will likely be back-and-forth moves, so it’s important to keep an eye on the subsequent economic data and policy developments.