Lately, I've been hearing everyone talk about "on-chain data," and I want to throw in a cold water splash: you think you're watching real-time data, but most of the time you're just seeing the "version" provided by the node/RPC/indexer you're using. Some RPCs are congested and respond slowly, some indexers are still catching up on blocks, and even the same transaction can appear in different orders on different frontends... To put it simply, what you see as "on-chain" might also be delayed; a few minutes' lag can easily sway your emotions.

These days, the discussions about staking unlocks and unlock calendars keep flipping back and forth, emphasizing selling pressure. I'm actually more worried that people are mentally extrapolating from delayed data: shouting "sell it all," but maybe it's just that the indexer hasn't caught up, or the one you're looking at hasn't updated the unlocks and collections yet. Anyway, I now prefer to check two or three sources; if they don't match, I just ignore it for now. Don't rush to draw conclusions—argue all you want, but when it comes to cutting losses, you have to accept it.

By the way, a little rant about my partner: whenever she sees me watching a block explorer, she says, "You're looking at fake real-time again," which makes me want to argue back, but then I realize... she might not be wrong either.