I just saw that Bitcoin dropped below $66,000, and it’s been oscillating back and forth mainly between $65,000 and $66,000. That psychological level is indeed a bit fierce. Interestingly, the inflow on the US spot ETF side is still positive—5445 BTC entered the day before, and over 13,000 BTC accumulated over the past week—but the price just can’t go up. This phenomenon on the chain is called “inflow without price increase,” which actually means that those holding positions trapped are selling off during rebounds.

On the macro side, risk aversion sentiment is very strong; the stock market is falling, while gold has surged to $5200. This rotation is not very friendly to Bitcoin. Ethereum was hit even harder, indicating that in this risk environment, altcoins are more prone to bloodbaths. I see the Fear & Greed index is only at 13, indicating extreme fear. During such times, rebounds are often seen as escape opportunities rather than genuine buying points.

On-chain signals are a bit subtle. Loss-making positions are near historical lows, which usually signals a bottom, but it could also just be accumulation, not enough to confirm a reversal. Funding rates tend to be negative, with short positions increasing, which theoretically has short squeeze potential, but this is more fuel than a trend itself. The key is whether BTC can hold above the average cost line and whether ETF inflows continue—both conditions need to be met for a real turnaround.

The US stock market is also entangled in stories about tariffs and fiscal risks, directly affecting the dollar, interest rates, and risk assets. In the short term, macro factors are dominant; without a stable macro environment, Bitcoin’s rebound can easily be knocked back. However, from an institutional perspective, everyone is shifting from speculation to infrastructure development (custody, clearing, etc.), which provides medium-term support.

Overall, the indicator score is only 24 points, indicating a mildly bearish trend. Although inflow data and accumulation signals look good, there’s a lack of genuine spot demand to confirm it. The price is still swinging in the $60K-$70K decision zone. Liquidity will thin out from Friday to the weekend, possibly leading to larger volatility. It’s advisable not to chase the rally now; wait for a confirmed breakout before entering.