Iran and the U.S. are stuck in a deadlock of "no war, no peace," with both sides believing they hold the advantage.

ME News Report, April 26 (UTC+8), the temporary suspension of US-Iran peace talks has placed both sides in a delicate state of “no war, no peace.” Iran and the United States are both confident they can endure longer under military and economic pressure: Iran believes it can withstand the economic shocks of war, while the Trump administration thinks measures like blocking the Strait of Hormuz can weaken Iran. Although there is currently a ceasefire, the lack of a permanent agreement keeps the situation unstable. Former Iranian officials and conservative media describe the current situation as a continuation of last June’s short-term conflict with Iran, with no guarantee of peace. While both sides avoid the costs of full-scale war, they continue to rely on threats of force, which may pose greater risks than short-term clashes. Progress in the ceasefire negotiations facilitated by Pakistan has been slow, and the global economy, especially oil supplies, faces pressure. The ongoing deadlock creates uncertainty about stability in the Middle East. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the Polymarket platform, the probability of a permanent peace between the US and Iran is only 2%, while the probabilities of peace are 32% and 48%, respectively. (Source: MLion)