Teacher Fu Peng is being criticized, and the biggest winner may become Teacher Zhao Bei. Here is a brief summary of some of Teacher Fu Peng's representative views over the past few years.

1. After 2024, Teacher Fu Peng believes that Trump's policies will strengthen domestic demand in the U.S., bring inflationary pressure, and change some of the Federal Reserve's assumptions.
2. China's economy mainly suffers from insufficient domestic demand, not lack of confidence. Therefore, the focus of A-shares is on the recovery of returns.
3. Emphasizes the importance of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Believes that after 2024, AI will partially enter a stage of overvaluation, making it more sensitive to fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields.
4. Japan needs to emerge from the trough; assets denominated in yen are considered undervalued.
5. Gold represents the real interest rates of the real world. Its pricing is based on actual interest rates as the standard. In a 2023 sharing, it was mentioned that $2,000 would be the historical peak for gold because real interest rates are continuously rising, and monetary over-issuance will end.
Objectively speaking, Teacher Fu Peng has always been somewhat unconventional in the field of domestic macro research. He is not a traditional chief economist (rigorous economic training and solid theoretical foundation).
He is more accustomed to understanding the market from the perspective of hedge fund models and trading; but this approach also has obvious limitations. If you do not continuously research, track, and trade the market, many of his insights may seem outdated, like trying to catch a falling knife.
Additionally, Teacher Fu Peng likes to use ratios, the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and similar frameworks as core guidance. Although the logic is clear, this framework sometimes lacks explanatory power in certain scenarios, and it even cannot be used for trading guidance, especially if you are not engaged in macro trading systems.
Real trading is not just about judging macro directions but also about assessing timing windows, odds, position structures, and the current game state of the market. The same macro logic can lead to completely different trading outcomes at different times, prices, and capital structures.
But Teacher Fu Peng's strength lies in his willingness to openly share his views and not fear being proven wrong, always ready to change his opinions and stance. In terms of disseminating macro insights, he is truly one of a kind.